Paisley has two choices

Analysis Paisley has his mandate but the governments say he must use it or lose it, writes Gerry Moriarty , Northern Editor

Analysis Paisley has his mandate but the governments say he must use it or lose it, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor

Assembly Election Count 2007 was a dramatic event but now that all the ballot boxes are stored away those huge question marks remain hovering over this project.

What will happen on Monday March 26th? Was this an election to a new government or an election to the usual deadlock? The answer is simple: we don't know. It's a game of call my bluff between Ian Paisley on one side, and Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair on the other.

Great election for Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley, although after such a thunderous mandate the DUP would have expected slightly more bang for their ballot, more power for their polling. Still, 36 seats now from 30 seats four years ago, and four of the 10 executive departments in their grasp - should Dr Paisley make that leap of faith with Martin McGuinness - who's complaining.

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Sinn Féin, up four seats to 28, is now the unchallenged main nationalist party, 12 seats ahead of the SDLP, compared to 2003 when it was only six seats in front. As well as Mr McGuinness, potentially, as deputy first minister, it will also have three ministries.

I met a friend on Wednesday morning who was a little distressed. She had voted 1,2,3,4,5, stop, for Sinn Féin in West Belfast but worried that she had misunderstood her Sinn Féin instructions by giving her number two vote to the specified number three candidate and vice versa.

It was then it dawned on me that Mr Adams and his party machine in the constituency would achieve what appeared almost an impossible task of taking five seats - at the expense of Diane Dodds of the DUP. Strange though that Shankill unionists, and there were enough of them, weren't sufficiently politicised to cause Mr Adams just a little frustration.

Ulster Unionism crashed but with 18 seats, down six from 2003, it at least managed to remain ahead of the SDLP, which means that should Stormont be reinstated it will have two ministries. That edge over the SDLP also means unionists will have the majority of seats in the executive, six to four.

The SDLP was bitterly disappointed now that it is relegated to 16 seats from 18 and only one ministry, especially after it entered the contest with what seemed realistic hopes of making gains.

Alliance with seven seats, one up on 2003, and its vote up more than 10,000 votes from four years ago, justifiably was cock-a-hoop, especially considering some predictions, including here, that it could be down to as low as three seats.

Dawn Purvis of the Progressive Unionist Party fought a storming campaign to take a seat, while Brian Wilson achieved another little piece of history by winning a first seat for the Greens. Now we've two all-Ireland parties.

But on the bigger picture we're still asking will there be a deal by March 26th? Dr Paisley has his mandate, and he has two choices, use it or lose it, according to the British and Irish governments, who continue to insist that if the deadline is missed then this third Assembly sinks like the Titanic.

Accepting at face value the words of some DUP politicians, including Dr Paisley, over the days of the count, you would be minded to say a deal can't happen by the St Andrews deadline. But the question you must also ask, is this genuine DUP intransigence or brinkmanship? Questions, questions.

Certainly there were no generous words of hope from the unionist victors in this election. DUP MEP Jim Allister refused to talk directly to Sinn Féin MEP Bairbre de Brún in the BBC studio. Dr Paisley wanted Sinn Féin to repent. Any DUP politician who got within range of a microphone mentioned Sinn Féin MP Michelle Gildernew and her gaffe about not notifying the PSNI if she spotted armed dissident republicans parading through Fermanagh.

The DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson and Sinn Féin's John O'Dowd were at it as well on Stephen Nolan's programme on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday. What about loyalist and Orange Order insurrectionists going on the rampage in west Belfast two years ago, was Mr O'Dowd's retort. And how the DUP pulled out of the local district policing partnerships in protest at the handling of the riot by the PSNI - which had been fired upon by loyalists.

We were back in the land of Whataboutery, a familiar but negative and poisonous place.

Friends, who had been watching the TV election coverage, told of how they switched off when the bickering and nastiness started, just as they switched off during the election campaign, comfortable in their conviction that the DUP and Sinn Féin would never get it together.

In the past year or so Peter Robinson spoke of how he could envision a Northern Ireland where "Planter and Gael" worked together in harmony. But in this campaign he has parroted one of Gerry Adams's catchphrases. If government ever happens it will be a "battle a day", the DUP deputy leader is certain.

"I don't think there is anything wrong with having a battle a day. Ask Michael McDowell," said Gerry Adams in west Belfast yesterday, Zen-like in his calm response. He's a very ambitious man who never rests. The North won, he broke for the Border to hold a Sinn Féin Southern election rally in Dublin last night. At the same press conference Bairbre de Brún said that people were constantly asking her how could Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness work together in the office of first and deputy first minister? "But ask Séamus Mallon and David Trimble. That was a battle a day, if there ever was a battle a day," said Ms de Brún, which was a good answer.

But to get into government Sinn Féin must deliver more, the DUP insisted, particularly in relation to policing after Ms Gildernew's campaign comments.

Sinn Féin had delivered, insisted Mr Adams in return. All this hardballing just points to deadlock, but is it real or posturing? We'll know in a couple of weeks is the short answer. Yet it should also be noted that Mr Adams attempted to address the DUP concerns. He found all the DUP complaints about Ms Gildernew merely an excuse not to engage. But if Dr Paisley had genuine concerns Sinn Féin would attempt to deal with them.

Furthermore, he added, Sinn Féin ministers would sign and honour their pledge of office, which incorporates a commitment to support the police and the courts.

Whatever about the DUP, like Oliver Twist, looking for more, the governments are adamant that March 26th is non-negotiable. They and Mr Adams and other parties argue that when people voted for the DUP and Sinn Féin they were voting for powersharing, and that seems reasonable. Constitutional issues were not mentioned on the doorsteps, bread and butter issues were, and DUP politicians concede that.

Privately, senior DUP people accept that powersharing must happen, although that won't stop them trying to push back the March 26th deadline. Between now and that deadline the DUP, as well as the other parties, will attempt to wrest a multi-billion pound package from British chancellor Gordon Brown. Mr Blair is likely to be prevailed upon to exert some muscle on his potential successor. But if there is no commitment on powersharing, Mr Brown won't divvy up.

Therefore it is mainly down to Dr Paisley. There might be some wriggle room around March 26th but if the DUP isn't up for it on or very close to that date then the governments would look very weak if they didn't dissolve. That would mean any return to devolution would require another election. That can't work. So, who's bluffing - Paisley, or Ahern and Blair? We'll get there yet.