ONE of the very few certainties about the next government is that it will do nothing at all about abortion. This is obvious from even a cursory glance at the policies of the component parts of either of the possible coalitions. Yet on each side there are many who feel it necessary to pretend otherwise.
For any government that wants to deal with the abortion issue, there is a straightforward choice. On the one hand, it can fulfil its current constitutional obligations, and bring in legislation which allows for abortions in Ireland where the life of the mother is at risk.
On the other, it can put forward a new referendum in line with the demands of the ProLife Campaign. If it were to meet those demands, however, and outlaw all abortion in Ireland, such an amendment would have to go very far indeed, and state explicitly that the rights of the mother were not to be taken into account under any circumstances.
Anything less would involve a balance of rights, and as the X ease judgment showed, there would always be circumstances in which that balance would come down on the side of permitting an abortion.
It is a tough choice, which would, either way, inevitably outrage a significant section of the population. John Bruton has more or less acknowledged that no government led by him is going to make the choice.
In his Irish Times interview last week, he ruled out both a referendum and legislation. Seeking refuge in masterly inactivity is hardly a very impressive position but it at least has the virtue of honesty.
Of his partners, Democratic Left is committed to legislation on the basis of the X case, but will not be able to do so under John Bruton. For Labour, Dick Spring has said that legislation on the basis of the Supreme Court judgment is "necessary". That "is what we would set out to do". But, he added, the difficulty of doing so should not be underestimated, and the solution to this "very difficult subject" could not be "found overnight".
It does not take very advanced code breaking skills to understand what it means when a political leader uses this kind of language - it would be a good idea but it's not going to happen.
Bertie Ahern has made a weak play for the antiabortion vote by promising to "deal with the issue" in government. But while John Bruton is promising "none of the above", Bertie Ahern is promising "whatever you're having yourself". He may go "the constitutional route, the legislative route" or "a combination of both under Article 27 of the Constitution".
The first of these routes, however, is effectively closed to a Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat government because of the latter party's very strong opposition to a referendum.
The second will not be taken because, although the PDs want legislation on the basis of the X case, Fianna Fail would be torn apart by any move to legalise abortion.
So that leaves the third, frankly risible option, of using Article 27. Since very few people can have heard of this obscure and never used provision in the Constitution, it is worth spelling out what it would involve. The necessary steps are:
(a) The Fianna Fail/PD government passes a Bill legislating for the X case, which is to say permitting abortion in limited and specified circumstances, in the Dail.
(b) Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney then instruct all of their senators to vote against this Bill that the Dail has passed, and succeed in "winning" a Seanad majority against their own Bill.
(c) The government then gets this majority of senators, and at least a third of all TDs, to present a petition to the President asking her to refuse to sign the Act into law.
(d) The President, acting independently and in consultation with the Council of State, decides that the Abortion Act "contains a proposal of such national importance that the will of the people thereon ought to be ascertained".
(e) A referendum is held within 18 months. Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney have to campaign against the Act which they have put through parliament. Unless they succeed in getting both a majority of those voting and at least a third of the registered electorate to vote against the Act, it will pass into law.
Even if they do so, however, the result is purely negative - it does not change the Constitution or the Supreme Court judgment in the X case. We are, in other words, back where we started.
Either Bertie Ahern really thinks this proposal is sensible, in which case he should consider seeking the leadership of the Monster Raving Loony Party, or he just threw it out as a way of disguising the fact that he, like the other party leaders, has no intention of doing anything about abortion.
