Next 30 hours will witness the big test of whether a deal is possible

ANALYSIS: President George Bush's visit to Northern Ireland was of some importance in terms of finally finding a political breakthrough. Not quite the "distraction" that Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition called it, but the next 30 hours will be the big test of whether a deal is possible.

When the President of the United States takes considerable time out from prosecuting a war in Iraq and achieving stability in the Middle East to concentrate on our long-running squabble, then it has to be of some significance. President Bush, according to officials who saw him engaging with the pro-Belfast Agreement parties in Hillsborough Castle yesterday afternoon, was impressive.

He spent several minutes with each of the parties, making fairly basic but nonetheless pertinent points. This was an opportunity for the parties to put a stamp on history, to act as a model for other difficult conflicts throughout the world, to make life better for future generations growing up here.

That reads rather bland, even trite, but the officials said President Bush made his appeals with such exhortation and force that it carried weight. Earlier, too, at his press conference with Tony Blair, he spent more time than expected on Northern Ireland and made his points well.

"I hope these leaders hear me when I say, 'achieve the agreement because it will have an effect beyond Northern Ireland'," he urged.

But equally it's true that if Northern Ireland is to face into a period of political progress, it is up to the Northern politicians to reach agreement together. President Bush and his Irish specialist Mr Richard Haass - who met Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP separately yesterday - can use their influence and muscle to raise expectations, but if the parties don't want to deal then there will be no deal tomorrow.

After all these meetings yesterday one US official said there was still an expectation that tomorrow's blueprint would be the trigger to reactivate the Stormont institutions. "The mood is definitively more positive than negative," he said.

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, in bilingual form, said he, too, believed that when he and Mr Blair return to Hillsborough tomorrow to present their package "the job will be críochnaithe".

But he also introduced a note of caution. He said he and his ministers would continue to "engage intensively" with the parties over the coming 24 hours and more. He conceded that there was still a "shortlist" of matters to be reconciled.

"There are still issues of tension with a number of the parties, not many, and not one party this is not completed."

Ulster Unionists and the SDLP have concerns around aspects of the British-Irish proposals, such as, respectively, liberty for IRA fugitives and sanctions but, as officials said, the main thrust for alterations to the document was coming from Sinn Féin. Party president Mr Gerry Adams repeated yesterday that in terms of sanctions, Sinn Féin could not be held accountable for the action of any other organisation, i.e., the IRA. There is still haggling over policing, demilitarisation and when responsibility for criminal justice and policing will be devolved to the Executive.

A senior Irish official, expanding on Mr Ahern's remarks, said that what remained to be resolved was in the realm of clarification, not negotiation - although sometimes the difference between the two words is too fine to distinguish.

A British source agreed that the hours to publication of the document were critical. The governments believed that a good deal was on the table but whether the parties would accept it, whether the IRA would end its war, and whether Ulster Unionists would endorse the package was too close to call.