New York mayoral primaries begin after lack-lustre campaign

Rudy's act is not easy to follow

Rudy's act is not easy to follow. That's Mr Rudy Giuliani to the two readers out there who have not heard of Mr New York, the Republicans' loud-talking, crime busting, adulterous, prostate-cancer-blighted mayor.

New Yorkers love him or hate him, but, as any politician will tell you, what matters is they know him. His successor in November's election will be one of those emerging from the primaries tomorrow which pitch four lacklustre Democrats against each other while the Republicans boast a race between one political neophyte billionaire and an eternal candidate ex-Congressman.

That the contest should not exactly have ignited the public's imagination does not however mean all are not campaigning vigorously and expensively - by Wednesday TV ads alone had cost campaigners some $23 million. All six were to be seen out marching yesterday in New York's Labour Day march wooing the still significant union vote.

With Mr Michael Bloomberg, the communications billionaire with bottomless pockets, certain to trump his Republican opponent, Mr Herman Badillo, most interest has now focused on the Democratic race where no candidate appears likely to top the 40 per cent required to stop a run-off in a fortnight.

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All four candidates, the city's public advocate, Mr Mark Green, the Bronx borough president, Mr Fernando Ferrer, the city comptroller, Mr Alan Hevesi, and the city council speaker, Mr Pete Vallone, insist they are still in with a chance. But three opinion polls last week have showed Mr Green and Mr Ferrer jockeying for first place, with the other two trailing.

An NY1 News/Daily News poll released on Saturday showed Mr Green at 27 per cent, Mr Ferrer at 26 per cent, Mr Vallone at 14 per cent and Mr Hevesi at 13 per cent.

Mr Ferrer, who says he is standing to represent the marginalised, voiceless half of the electorate which has been hit by spending cutbacks and continuing poverty, is the best chance yet for a first Hispanic mayor.

A Puerto Rican, he hopes to reignite the alliance of blacks and Hispanics that brought Mr David Dinkins to power in 1989. But if he wins the primary endorsements with support from the likes of the Rev Al Sharpton, strongly disliked in the white community, it may give Mr Bloomberg the edge he needs in a city that is ostensibly 70 per cent Democratic.

The city is a city of minorities but observers warn that a campaign based on any one ethnic community may not have the capacity to embrace a majority.

Mr Green, a well-known liberal who has often clashed with Mr Giuliani, is toning down his progressive image to make this former Nader's Raider more acceptable, while Mr Hevesi does his best to shake off an image of being too compliant to the mayor.

Critical will be the turnout in a city whose voter base has grown from 3.2 million to 3.6 million since 1989, mostly Caribbean and Dominican with some Chinese. But only 395,000 or 18 per cent of registered Democrats and 110,000 of the city's half million Republicans bothered to come out in the last primary.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times