New PD signings give party hope

The latest opinion poll offers little comfort for the Progressive Democrats but they are, nevertheless, convinced that they have…

The latest opinion poll offers little comfort for the Progressive Democrats but they are, nevertheless, convinced that they have turned the corner, writes Mark Hennessy

Just days before, she verged on tears on RTÉ's Six O'Clock News as she ate humble pie for using an Aer Corps flight to travel to open a friend's Manorhamilton off-licence.

Now, McDowell and Molloy were back on board, supported by the arrival of former Irish Farmers' Association president, Tom Parlon. Instead of facing political extinction, she was once more in the game.

However, the omens are not all good. The Irish Times/MRBI poll shows the party stuck on 3 per cent, even though it was probably conducted too early to reflect any boost from her new signings.

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National polls often deceive, because smaller parties contest few constituencies. Nevertheless, the 3 per cent result is 1.68 per cent behind what the PDs received in 1997. Barring earthquakes, the Tánaiste herself should win in the new Dublin Mid-West constituency, even though her party has not won in a three-seater since 1987.

Foreign Affairs Minister of State Liz O'Donnell should emerge from notoriously fickle Dublin South - while Bobby Molloy is tipped in Galway West, unless voters there believe he is on a retirement lap.

Despite Michael McDowell's deserved reputation as a political heavyweight and attorney general, voters in Dublin South-East have twice - in 1989 and 1997 - rebuffed him.

But, the anti-establishment vote that elected Green Party TD John Gormley by 27 votes in place of McDowell in 1997 has fractured somewhat since.

Fine Gael's second candidate, Colm MacEochaidh, could siphon off some of Gormley's environmental support, while Sinn Féin's Daithí Doolan will take some crucial hundreds of votes.

"The question is whether those votes will transfer back to him at some stage, and in time. Gormley is worried that his base is fragmenting," said one source.

"McDowell has the heavyweight senior counsel bit. And he has good people around him locally. The key will be the campaign that he runs," commented one TD.

Nevertheless, only a fool would write off the hard-working Gormley, particularly since the MRBI poll gave the Greens 8 per cent of the capital's core vote, compared to just 1 per cent for the PDs.

Obsessed with politics, McDowell, who has thrived since he replaced David Byrne in the Attorney General's Office, is now back in the party he quit in 1998.

In October 2000, he proposed that the PDs should change its name, adopt new policies, and, most importantly, create a powerful party president who would not be answerable to the leader. Under this plan, Harney would have been confined to leading the PDs in the Dáil. Now, however, he will get the office on her nomination to next month's conference.

Harney and McDowell agreed terms last Friday week, which were subsequently passed by the parliamentary party and trustees shortly after 8 p.m. on Monday.

"It was a lot easier than people expected. There is no comparison between what he got and what he was originally looking for," said one source close to the talks.

However, the fact that the PDs have not publicly defined McDowell's role indicates that this may not be the case. Harney may well be storing up trouble for the future.

Between now and May, the two will need to stay on the same hymn sheet. The internal balance of power could swing to McDowell if the PDs perform badly in the election.

Tutored in survival techniques by the IFA, the Laois/Offaly-based Tom Parlon has yet to prove himself in the slightly different world of pure politics.

The constituency has never been a happy PDs hunting ground. Former senator Kathy Honan laboured hard but never made the grade from her Portarlington base.

Parlon began to believe that he had the makings of a political career after the IFA's blockade of beef companies in early 2000, which ended up costing the association £500,000 in legal fines.

Nevertheless, Parlon was considered to have sold the farmers' case well: "He realised that he had communications skills. And farming doesn't do it for him any more," said one source.

Last summer, he chatted about his future options with Harney at a party in Dublin. "She told him that he should not do anything without talking to her first," The Irish Times was told.

During the IFA's confrontation with Greencore over beet prices in December, his closeness to Harney was noticed: "He had her private mobile number programmed in his own phone," said one source.

In parallel, Parlon was talking to Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan. However, the latter could not offer job guarantees. Harney, on the other hand, is believed to have been more accommodating.

"That's all fine and dandy. But the job of a super Minister for State doesn't necessarily do it for the people of Laois/Offaly. They already have Brian Cowen. And he is God," said one Laois/Offaly source.

Negotiations finally concluded last Saturday. Capturing the nervousness surrounding them, PDs general secretary John Higgins, said: "It was like hanging around for the Leaving Certificate results, only worse." So far, locals divide on Parlon's move: "Harney is unpopular here. People got short shrift when they went looking for a taskforce after factories closed," commented Offaly Independent journalist Conor McHugh.

Parlon's arrival has transformed a predictable campaign. Fine Gael's Cllr Olwyn Enright, who is based just 10 miles away from Parlon, may have more to fear than her Portlaoise-based running mate Charles Flanagan.

Election victory, if it comes, and power subsequently will cause Harney major headaches, even if Molloy will oblige by settling for the chair of a Dáil committee.

However, McDowell, O'Donnell and Parlon, none of whom are shy about coming forward, will all want posts.

Harney will not have them to give. Right now, this is a dilemma that she would gladly accept.