THE spate of church burning in Northern Ireland is not the work of the main loyalist paramilitary organisations but of loosely organised rural loyalists who appear bent on stirring up sectarian trouble before the main Orange marching season, according to security sources in Belfast.
Some of the arson attacks are almost certainly freelance operations by sectarian extremists in both communities.
It is believed that some of the church burning has been organised by members of a group calling itself the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF).
This group, senior loyalists say, includes remnants of the faction headed by the Portadown loyalist Billy Wright, who is serving a jail term for threatening to kill a local woman who was a witness in a case against one of his associates. It is also believed the LVF has attracted a number of other dissident loyalists in Belfast and Co Antrim.
The mainline loyalist paramilitary figures also say that another Portadown loyalist, a man personally responsible for one of the worst sectarian outrages in Armagh in recent times, is now leading the LVF.
This man, loyalists say, was responsible for shooting Ms Eileen Duffy (19), Ms Katrine Rennie (16) and Mr Brian Frizzell (29) at a mobile shop on the Drumbeg Estate in Craigavon on March 28th, 1991. He was questioned but never charged with the crime.
The murders were carried out while the man was a member of the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) in Armagh which suspected Mr Frizzell of being associated with the IRA. There was, however, consternation among the loyalists when the gunman sent to kill Frizzell also shot dead the two teenage girls.
The murders led to growing division between the UVF group in Portadown and the leadership in Belfast, the loyalists say. The Portadown group was eventually expelled in 1995 when it openly opposed the loyalist ceasefire.
Given the record of its leadership, there is concern that the LVF might embark on a campaign of sectarian assassinations in the Armagh/Tyrone area in response to an increase in republican violence during the marching season.
The group has not as yet carried out any assassinations. It is also not clear how many of the arson attacks on 56 Protestant and Catholic churches and 45 community halls its members have been responsible for in the past 16 months.
The UDA, UVF and the Red Hand Commando (RHC) have all carried out attacks on republicans since last December. The RHC is suspected of having carried out the bomb attack on the Sinn Fein offices in Derry two weeks ago. The UVF was responsible for planting a bomb containing 12 kilos of commercial explosives at the Sinn Fein office in Monaghan last month.