TURKEY has a new government but Mr Mesut Yilmaz's minority coalition formed on Monday of this week under the shadow of the powerful military is unlikely to bring long-lasting stability.
Mr Necmettin Erbakan Turkey's first Islamist prime minister bowed to the pressure of the army and stepped down on June 18th after less than a year in government.
The new government, an unlikely alliance of three left and right-wing parties whose only common ground is a desire to keep the Islamist Welfare Party (RP) out of power, is facing serious challenges. To obtain a parliamentary vote of confidence next Saturday the coalition will have to rely on the support of a fourth group, the Republican People's Party (CHP), which has made it clear it wants early elections.
However, Mr Yilmaz's chances of getting the backing of the national assembly have been greatly increased by a recent spate of resignations from the True Path Party (DYP) of his rival, Ms Tansu Ciller. Feeling the heat from the secularist establishment, while in coalition with the Islamists, no less than 13 deputies crossed the floor in the past 10 days alone.
The new government brings back veteran political figures who have done little in opposition to earn their return to power. Mr Yilmaz (50), the rather uncharismatic and slow-speaking leader of the Motherland (ANAP) party, was prime minister on two previous occasions: in 1991 his first government lasted only five months; his alliance last year with Ms Ciller (whom he clearly loathes) was even shorter-lived and collapsed after three months.
His deputy, Mr Bulent Ecevit (72), leader of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), was prime minister in the turbulent 1970s and ordered the Turkish intervention in Cyprus in 1974. He was also the man who turned down EU membership when Turkey was approached to balance Greece's application. Through his party colleague, Mr Ismail Cem, the new Foreign Minister, Mr Ecevit is likely to exercise considerable influence, focusing more on Turkey's narrow nationalist interests than on any global vision.
The third political formation in the government, the Democratic Turkey Party (DTP) founded by dissidents from Ms Ciller's DYP under the leadership of a former speaker, Mr Husamettin Cindoruk, is represented by the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Ismet Sezgin. The fact that Mr Cindoruk himself chose to stay outside the government raises the possibility that he will one day make a bid for the leadership of a united right.
Although defeated, Mr Erbakan's Welfare Party, the biggest group in parliament, will remain a powerful opposition force.
The secular institutions show no sign of relenting in their feuds" with the previous government. A court procedure to get the Welfare Party closed down is still under way and three reporters from a radical Islamic newspaper have been charged for criticising the prosecutor who brought the case against the party. Mr Ozer Ciller, the DYP leader's husband, has already had to testify in a corruption case and Ms Ciller herself is being accused, oddly, of being a CIA agent.
In Turkey's secular press, the former administration is being conveniently blamed for most of the country's ills, including inflation and the collapse of the education system. It has been suggested that members of the police force who supported Mr Erbakan's government were asked to spy on the armed forces. This shows how divided the debate on Islam and secularism has left the country and its institutions.
The new coalition will concentrate on implementing the harsh measures demanded by the generals to combat political Islam. However, Mr Yilmaz may discover that these are not too popular with some of his own conservative colleagues.
Most people agree that by next year at the latest an early general election will become unavoidable. With 66 deputies having changed parties - in some cases, several times - in the 18 months since the last elections, this parliament" can hardly be seen as representative of the popular will.