NB: this tribunal could go anywhere

YOU could have cut the tension with a knife in here on Thursday as word spread that a big story was about to break

YOU could have cut the tension with a knife in here on Thursday as word spread that a big story was about to break. There was running for cover, as usual, until it was established who had the story and who exactly was under fire.

Gradually it emerged in the way things usually do in here - by dribs and drabs and with much padding along the way - that once again it was Ben Dunne and that Prime Time would name names.

That took the pressure off the other parties and left Fianna Fail sweating. Not a nice thing to happen, especially on the eve of an ardfheis, but in the event Drapier didn't think there was all that much new in the Prime Time story, and was left scratching his thinning scalp wondering what he had not already read in the papers.

At this point Drapier would like to sound one of his occasional notes of caution.

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It strikes Drapier that at present there is a great deal of attempting to second guess - or even set the agenda for the McCracken tribunal. But as we should all know by now, much of the current speculation is based on leaks and partial information, some of it dodgy enough. There is a great deal more that none of us has seen and which Mr Justice McCracken may have and which may yet tell a different story.

Drapier is not going to labour the point. He will simply say what he has said before tribunals take on a life of their own. Expect the unexpected and be prepared to see the inquiry head in a direction nobody expected. That's all, but it's enough to be going on with.

Whether the public will take that much interest is another matter. The media, of course, will dine out, but whether the ordinary voter is all that turned on is unclear.

Drapier suspects most people have their minds made up about all of us, and that it is the economy and their own perceived well being which make the vital difference.

But all in all it is not the sort of story Bertie Ahern wanted on the eve of his election ardfheis. It is an enormous distraction, especially for the media pack, and it does revive old and less than happy memories.

On the other hand, the conspiracy theorists were hard at it in here on Friday Fianna Fail had set it all up to enable Bertie give his answers and do his distancing in the full publicity of the ardfheis.

It would even give him a chance to take the moral high ground. It's a thought, but Drapier was never into conspiracy theories - he leaves that to others - and certainly he doesn't buy into this one.

There was great fun in here at Joan Burton's announcing the date of the general election on Emily O'Reilly's much improved Radio Ireland programme. In passing, Drapier is glad to see the new radio station - or at least the political end of it - beginning to find its feet. RTE badly needs a bit of competition and at last it seems to be getting it.

On the election date, Drapier got the impression from John Bruton's Thursday speech that the Coalition partners will not be rushed until they are ready. Drapier was not all that impressed with what the Taoiseach had to say on this matter. Drapier knows there is still a fair amount of important legislation, but he knows too that nerves in here are on edge and people have got to a stage where they actually want the election.

The wife of one deputy pleaded with Drapier this week to "do something". By this Drapier understood her to mean that he should call the election. Now Drapier knows he is listened to, but calling the election is still John Bruton's (no, not Joan Burton's) prerogative.

What this good woman told Drapier was that her husband was like a horse on too rich a feed of oats these past three weeks and the thought of three or five more months like that would be unbearable for her and the family.

In Drapier's view this type of experience is wider than people imagine. The momentum for the election is now unstoppable.

Fianna Fail took comfort from the Evening Herald survey, which saw its vote up in Dublin, and there was much jubilation at Labour's discomfiture. Drapier says, yes, good news for Fianna Fail, but only up to a point. The Fianna Fail vote is up on the last general election (it could hardly be lower) but what of the trend these past few months? Drapier will say no more on this ardfheis weekend, except to warn about counting chickens.

For the life of him, Drapier couldn't understand the intensity and petulance of Fianna Fail's reaction to Dick Spring's cupla focal in Limerick. The Fianna Fail reaction did not convey the impression of a party confident in its own ability to form the much vaunted "single party government".

Nor did it convey any sense of confidence that Fianna Fail and the PDs could, between them, reach the required targets. Instead the message was that Fianna Fail would need Labour to form a government.

Drapier thought the whole thing ill advised. The series of attacks on Dick Spring served to put Labour back centre stage at a crucial time. Just like 1992. It also cemented Labour doubters into the Rainbow configuration and ensured the voters will, for the first time in a long time, have a clear cut choice between two governments, one led by John Bruton and one by Bertie Ahern.

In Drapier's view, lofty disdain and least said soonest mended would have been a better approach. Imagine de Valera even countenancing the existence of an alternative or dignifying Dick Spring's comments with a reply. It was, as Drapier saw it, all indicative of tetchiness and uneasiness in Fianna Fail.

Not that the other parties didn't have their problems. Fine Gael has great difficulty getting its act together in WickIow, though Drapier thinks the likely ticket there will be George Jones (for whom Drapier has a lot of respect), Billy Timmins and Tom Honan. Ironically, it is a much stronger team than was possible a few weeks ago - but what a lot of messing.

And all parties can expect more of the same as we approach countdown. Kerry South now has not one, but two, independent Fianna Fail candidates.

It won't be long now.