Mysteries of Pinochet effect leave Chilean election result anyone's guess

The second round of Chile's presidential elections takes place tomorrow, under the shadow of Gen Augusto Pinochet, a presence…

The second round of Chile's presidential elections takes place tomorrow, under the shadow of Gen Augusto Pinochet, a presence which both candidates had hitherto tried, more or less successfully, to ignore.

The move by the British Home Secretary, Mr Jack Straw, to block Gen Pinochet's extradition to Spain on health grounds has let that genie out of the bottle again, just five days before the poll. No one, however, is able to predict what impact that new development will have on what is bound to be a close-run contest.

The first round last month left the two main contenders, Socialist Party leader Mr Ricardo Lagos and the right-wing Mr Joaquin Lavin, in a virtual dead heat, separated by less than 35,000 votes in Mr Lagos's favour.

Mr Lagos represents the Concertacion coalition, currently in government, a coalition of Socialists and Christian Democrats. If he wins, he would be the first Socialist president since Salvador Allende, who died during Gen Pinochet's bloody coup d'etat in 1973. Mr Lagos was imprisoned for his opposition to the Pinochet regime, but has played down his past during a campaign which has carefully avoided opening old wounds.

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Mr Lavin was an active supporter of the dictatorship, but his electoral strategy has also drawn a veil over that violent period. If he overtakes Mr Lagos, Mr Lavin would be the first democratically elected Chilean president to the right of the Christian Democrats since the 1950s.

Some analysts believe, however, that news of Gen Pinochet's probable return could scuttle Mr Lavin's chances, by reminding the electorate of his past association with the dictatorship. Others believe that it is Mr Lagos who will suffer, because Communist Party supporters, who could determine the outcome, are bitterly disenchanted with his coalition's handling of the extradition issue. They may punish Mr Lagos either by abstaining or even by voting for Mr Lavin.

Mr Lavin was an important supporter of the Pinochet military regime and a founder of the rigidly right Independent Democratic Union (UDI), a party often referred to as the general's political fig leaf. The UDI has the largest financial base in the country, both in terms of its assets, and the personal wealth of its supporters.

Not surprisingly, the leader of the powerful business group the Confederation of Trade and Industry, Mr Walter Riesco, ventured into politics this week by declaring his opposition to the government candidate.

It was less predictable that he should be joined by a large percentage of the million-strong indigenous people, who were treated with contempt by the Pinochet dictatorship. Yet many of them voted for Mr Lavin in December because of disillusionment with the Concertacion government's handling of indigenous land rights disputes.

Economist Marcel Claude described tomorrow`s election as opting between Gen Pinochet's Chile and monetarism on the one hand, and good education, accessible health care, fair salaries and pensions, on the other. It seems that many Chileans, however, no longer see things in those terms. The broad promises made to the electorate by Mr Lavin, coupled with widespread cynicism about the record of Mr Lagos's coalition, may still swing the vote against the left.