Mugabe looks helpless as public apathy turns to anger

Feted as the leader of the developing world in the 1980s, President Robert Mugabe's achievement in building up the newly independent…

Feted as the leader of the developing world in the 1980s, President Robert Mugabe's achievement in building up the newly independent state of Zimbabwe has made him a role model for the rest of black Africa.

Had he retired a few years ago, his place in history would have been secure: a brilliant guerrilla commander, a force for reconciliation between blacks and whites and between the Shona and Ndebele people in Zimbabwe, and the leading figure in the world's non-aligned movement.

Today, however, Mr Mugabe appears helpless in the face of growing social unrest and economic decay as the achievements of the past 18 years slowly unravel.

Squeezed between the demands of international bankers on one hand and a hard-pressed public on the other, the president's room for manoeuvre is extremely limited.

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Even his leadership of the black world has been usurped since Mr Nelson Mandela was released from prison. "Mugabe is resentful of the South Africans and their new role as the paradigm of African nationalism," says Iden Wetherell, associate editor of the Zimbabwe Independent.

Zimbabwe is still wealthier and more stable than most states in the region, but it has nothing of the energy of the new South Africa. It is a country which has been turned into a virtual one-party state, ruled by an autocrat. All but three of the country's deputies belong to the ruling ZANU/PF party.

However, long-standing public apathy is now turning to anger, as prices rise and land reform stalls. During recent food riots, the President appeared to lose control of the situation until the army was called in for the first time since independence.

The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions has called a new round of strikes and street protests for next month. Meanwhile, the powerful war veterans' lobby is keeping up pressure for the massive transfer of land from whites to blacks.

Many observers believe the 50,000 war veterans represent the biggest threat to Mr Mugabe. Last year, they almost toppled the government, until the President caved in to their demand for cash lump sums each plus a pension for life.

It was this deal which finally emptied the coffers, tipping the Zimbabwean dollar into freefall and tarnishing the country's image with international investors.

"Mugabe is in bad shape today. What he needs is a miracle, or some kind of political gymnastics," says Dr Ibbo Mandaza, director of the Southern Africa Regional Institute for Political Studies.

Mr Mike Auret of the Catholic Justice and Peace Commission says Mr Mugabe has been ill advised since moving out of parliament and into the President's office a decade ago. "Unable to control corruption among his supporters, he appears to have joined the bandwagon."

But Mr Auret says the main form of corruption in Zimbabwe is the "inequitable use of scarce resources" such as the war veterans' payout and the purchase of a new fleet of Mercedes for government ministers.

Undoubtedly, Mr Mugabe's biggest error has been the proposal to acquire compulsorily 1,500 white-owned farms. Even those who support the idea of redistributing land to poor peasants say the plan is ill thought out, unconstitutional and unworkable.

"It was a grave mistake not to redistribute the land back in 1980 - this happened in every other colony the British left. But it isn't possible to go about it now in the way the government is proposing," says Dr Mandaza.

The government approach to land reform - high on rhetoric, but short on action - is difficult to comprehend. Mr Mugabe still talks the language of revolutionary socialism - party officials still address each other as "comrades" - but the influence of his education by Irish Jesuits is becoming more discernable. "These days, he's more Marist than Marxist," Mr Wetherell remarks.

Dr Mandaza says the President should designate a successor now and plan to retire gracefully in a few years' time. But Mr Mugabe, 74 this month, is fighting fit, with a new wife half his age. He doesn't give any indication of imminent retirement, nor is there any likely successor in the wings.