Tipperary North was once strong Fine Gael territory. It was the base of party chairman Michael Lowry, an effective fundraiser with considerable organisational skills, who played a key role in the formation of the 1994 Rainbow Coalition.
Then came Mr Lowry's political fall, his resignation from the Cabinet and his departure from the Fine Gael parliamentary party following revelations about his financial affairs. Mr Lowry ran as an Independent in the 1997 general election and topped the poll with 11,638 votes, more than 1,600 above the quota, an increase of 4,200 votes on the 1992 election.
The Fine Gael vote fell from 28.1 per cent to 11.3 per cent, and its candidate, Mr Tom Berkery, trailed Mr Lowry and the two successful Fianna Fail candidates, Mr Michael O'Kennedy and the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, with 4,521 first preferences. The constituency became a Fine Gael black spot.
A selection convention last month chose Mr Noel Coonan, from Roscrea, to run next time. Mr Coonan, who topped the poll with 1,858 first preferences in the Templemore electoral area in the Tipperary North Riding County Council elections and runs a full-time office in Templemore, will be a strong candidate. But he recognises that winning a seat will be an uphill struggle without some kind of voting pact with Mr Lowry. Mr Coonan believes it is "absolutely essential" to have a vote transfer pact with Mr Lowry, adding: "I will be advocating full co-operation with him."
However, any arrangement made between Mr Lowry and the party is likely to be unofficial. Mr Lowry is known to be anxious to rejoin Fine Gael when his financial situation is put in order and the party leader, Mr John Bruton, has not ruled it out. But until that happens, Mr Lowry will remain as an Independent TD, with Fine Gael keeping its distance. That would not, however, rule out a general election voting pact on the ground in Tipperary North.
Should Mr Lowry help Fine Gael win a seat, it would, no doubt, boost his aim to be rehabilitated with the party. Mr Lowry's remarkable voter appeal was again shown in last year's local elections when he won a county council seat in the Thurles electoral area with 2.5 quotas. He was joined by a close supporter, Mr Willie Kennedy, who took the second seat. The Fine Gael vote slumped and it won just one seat in the six-seater.
With Mr O'Kennedy expected to retire at the next election, the first two Dail seats are likely to be won by Mr Lowry and Mr Smith. An intense battle between Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour is predicted for the third seat. The Labour candidate will be Senator Kathleen O'Meara, who polled disappointingly in the local elections. She secured 767 first preference votes in the Nenagh electoral area, which put her in 10th place, and she was eventually elected on the final count.