For many local politicians, this weekend will be one of secret meetings and intense phone calls, with a high chance of betrayal. With the election over, new councillors are already down to the real business of local politics, deciding on who will take control of the local authorities, writes Liam Reid
The first official meetings of most of the 34 county and city councils are due to take place next week, at which the spoils of office are due to be allotted. Principal among the spoils will be the golden chain of mayoral office.
It's a mainly ceremonial position, held for just a year, which may barely register as a blip on the national political radar. However, at local level the role of city or council mayor can prove enormously important, offering an automatic media profile that can be invaluable to an ambitious local politician.
Of more immediate importance in the next week or so is the question of political affiliation of the new county and city mayors. With the choice made by a simple voting majority of councillors, the selection of new mayors and vice mayors next week will also indicate who is in the political ascendancy.
The person who will take these posts in each council will have been decided in advance of council meetings. But with a single party majority in only two councils, the outcome in most councils is uncertain. In many cases parties, even in coalition, will not have sufficient numbers for an outright majority and will have to rely on deals struck this weekend with independents.
These pacts can take two forms. The first, and traditionally most common, is the rotating agreement, where two or more parties agree to rotate the positions of mayor and deputy mayor. This is primarily a marriage of convenience, where a deal has been cut between parties or independents on the sharing of positions, which can come with attractive expenses packages.
There is no shared set of policy positions, no voting pact or any agreement apart from that relating to the annual election of mayor. The second, and altogether rarer form, is a comprehensive voting arrangement and an agreed programme for local government. In this system councillors from different parties act like a coalition government, agreeing to vote together on major issues, and take a policy-led approach to how they vote.
So what are the likely outcomes in the mayor and deputy mayor elections next week? While there is still considerable uncertainty, what is clear is that Fianna Fáil will lose out to an even greater degree than in the local elections. Quite simply, it has no outright control of any local authority, and can only hope to gain a handful of mayoral positions, through agreements with independents.
A study by the General Council of County Councils of the parties' positions after the previous local election shows the change.
"After 1999, Fianna Fáil had outright control of eight county councils," according to Liam Kenny, chief executive of the general council. "Overall, of the 68 mayoral positions [34 mayors and 34 deputy mayors], Fianna Fáil held 39, Fine Gael 15, Labour four, the PDs two, Sinn Féin two and non-party six."
With 43 per cent of the 883 seats in 1999, Fianna Fáil was able to capture 57 per cent of the mayor and deputy mayor positions, compared with Fine Gael, who, with 32 per cent of the seats, took just 22 per cent of the mayoral positions.
After last weekend's election, the situation seems disastrous for Fianna Fáil. It lost 82 seats, or 21 per cent, but is set to lose control of more than half of the councils it had overall, or joint control of. The closest Fianna Fáil is to control of any local authority is in Donegal, where it has 14 out of 29 seats and can expect to enter into a voting pact with Independent Fianna Fáil.
Indeed, Fianna Fáil's main chance of holding any positions of power in many councils, such as Cavan, Monaghan and South Tipperary, is to get "rotating" deals with Fine Gael.
In two-thirds of the 34 councils, Fine Gael, with a combination of Labour and the Greens (the rainbow coalition parties), are in the ascendant. Fine Gael has an outright majority of two on Longford and Cork county councils. It can confidently expect to strike deals with Labour in counties Westmeath, Sligo and Kilkenny. On Fingal County Council, Labour is the largest party and can be expected to form an alliance with Fine Gael and the Greens to take control. A similar position exists on Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council.
In counties Clare, Carlow, Waterford, Wicklow and Galway, as well as Dublin city and Waterford city, various Fine Gael and Labour-led rainbow coalitions are the likeliest outcomes.
Back at the Dublin headquarters of both Labour and Fine Gael, party leaders and officials are anxious that rainbow or "civic" alliances be formed with potential government partners where possible. While such deals cannot be dictated by head office, local party organisations have been left in no doubt as to the preference of party bosses.
That said, the political make-up of the councils may have little real impact, and just a few issues, such as bin charges in Dublin, may be affected.
The lack of reform of local government has seen the power of councillors eroded, to the extent that the change in mayor or balance of political power of a council can make little difference, as the councils themselves have such limited powers.
As one senior politician put it about the soon-to-be-elected mayors: "They'll be no Ken Livingstone."
Former Dublin Lord Mayor, Labour's Dermot Lacey accepts that the position of mayor is one that carries little real power, but he believes it can provide a significant informal authority and influence.
"It's how you use it [the office\]. For example, one of the first things I did as Lord Mayor was, I went to the picket-line of the workers on strike at the Irish Glass Bottle plant in Ringsend, even though I was being advised in the Mansion House that this was too political. It also gives you a moral authority. I found that, as lord mayor, when you contacted organisations, they tended to respond to you quickly."
Lacey is highly critical of the lack of reform in local government, such as the stalling of plans for directly elected mayors. The Minister for the Environment, Martin Cullen is the "most anti-local government minister we have had in years," he says.
Because directly elected mayors would have been elected for five years, county and city managers would not have been able to ignore their views, Lacey believes.
Martin Cullen's spokesman rejects suggestions that the minister is anti-local government. "The fact is that Martin Cullen's position is not that far removed from Dermot Lacey's."
The minister is in favour of a major reform of how local government is financed, which is at present mainly through central government funds and commercial rates. He has begun a consultation process to examine other ways of financing councils.
Cullen decided to defer the system of directly electing mayors until these reforms are in place. His spokesman adds: "What he wants to see is a directly elected mayor, working with other councillors like a mini-cabinet, where locally elected people have a greater input in spending on a day-to-day level."