ITALY'S governing centre left coalition and the centreright opposition both claimed victory yesterday after weekend local elections.
The opposition parties led in the northern cities of Turin and Milan, while the government coalition of the Prime Minister, Mr Romano Prodi, was in front in Trieste, Ancona and Reggio Calabria.
More than 7.3 million people braved wind, rain and even snow in some parts of Italy to vote in elections for mayors and local councils in 1,115 towns and cities. The final outcome of the majority of mayoral contests will be decided only in a two candidate run off vote in two weeks' time, but significant trends emerged from Sunday's vote.
First and foremost, the centre left coalition has discovered yet again that it cannot go it alone. When it comes to the second round of many mayoral contests, the governing "Olive Tree" coalition will, at local level as in the national parliament, again find itself dependent on the votes of Rifondazione Communista.
Rifondazione saw its vote hold steady at close to the 10.3 per cent it earned at last year's general election. If the centre left candidates in Turin, Trieste and Milan are to win in the next round, victory will depend on the support of Rifondazione voters.
Rifondazione's strong showing will probably work out in the coalition's favour since Rifondazione voters, with or without encouragement from their party leaders, are likely to vote Olive in the run offs.
The real problem for Mr Prodi is that Sunday's vote represents a huge endorsement of the obstinate line taken by his ally, the Rifondazione leader, Mr Fausto Bertinotti, regarding government plans for structural reforms to the Italian economy, in particular to the pensions system. The prime minister, the European Commission and independent analysts are all convinced that, without such reforms, Italy will struggle to meet the stringent convergency criteria for European monetary union.
Mr Bertinotti, however, has made it clear that his party opposes radical cuts to the Italian welfare state in general and to the pensions system in particular. Coming in a week when the Commission forecasts that Italy will fail to join the single European currency, this good showing for Rifondazione can only complicate Mr Prodi's task in negotiating the welfare reforms with his ally.
While the Olive coalition and Rifondazione set about the business of negotiating an electoral pact for the second ballot, the opposition centre right had good reason to be satisfied with its showing, especially in the key centres of Milan and Turin where its respective candidates Mr Gabriele Albertini (41 per cent) and Mr Raffaele Costa (43 per cent) topped the poll.
Less satisfied with a predictably poor showing was the once federalist, now secessionist Northern League. Nowhere was this more obvious than in Milan - Italy's business capital where the league mayor, Mr Marco Formentini, saw his vote diminish to less than 20 per cent, thus ruling him out of the run off vote in a fortnight's time.
Mr Formentini, elected in 1993 at the height of the league's popularity, trailed a poor third to opponents from the centre right Freedom Alliance and the governing centre left Olive Tree bloc.
The league leader, Mr Umberto Bossi, brushed off Mr Formentini's defeat and the poor showing in Turin, saying southern Italian "immigrants" in the cities would never vote for his party.
But his right hand man, Mr Roberto Maroni, disagreed with Mr Bossi's analysis, saying the Milan vote suggested that the middle classes had deserted the league's ranks in favour of the centre right.
"This is the beginning of the end for Bossi," the philosopher and centre right parliamentarian, Mr Lucio Colletti, said.