The number of school leavers taking the Leaving Cert is set to decline from 60,000 in recent years to just 44,000 by 2007, according to new figures.
It also emerged yesterday that only 62 per cent of male students in Dublin were taking the Leaving Cert, the lowest figure in the State. The problem of early school leaving is particularly acute in areas of social disadvantage. Dublin also has the lowest participation rate at third-level.
These figures emerged as the Oireachtas Committee on Education considered the issue of access to education.
Mr Paddy McDonagh, an assistant secretary in the Department of Education, said the declining demographics presented both opportunities and challenges for the education sector.
It was, he said, an opportunity to extend access to groups which have been traditionally under-represented such as those from lower socio-economic groups, the disabled and others.
The chairman of the Higher Education Authority, Dr Don Thornhill, said the problem of young males from lower socio-economic groups not participating in the Leaving Cert was a growing one which merited serious consideration.
The figures show that Dublin has the lowest participation to Leaving Cert level for both males and females (70 per cent). In contrast, more than 80 per cent of males in the midlands and 90 per cent of females in Border areas take the exam.
The committee was told that the third-level sector was still dominated by the middle and upper classes although significant progress had been achieved in the past 20 years. In 1980, fewer than 5 per cent of those from homes headed by the unskilled went to colleges; this has now increased to 27 per cent.
Mr McDonagh said the forthcoming review of third-level fees would present a range of options to the Minister for Education, Mr Dempsey.
He confirmed that discussions had taken place with the Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs about giving it responsibility for the third-level grant scheme.
The grant scheme has been widely criticised because of its apparent bias against PAYE workers. A government report a decade ago indicated that large farmers and the self-employed could easily manipulate the grant system to gain support for their children.
Mr McDonagh said there was a case for handing over the system to social welfare because of its expertise in means testing. However, the local authorities and VECs who now managed the system also had a great deal of local knowledge. No decision had been taken, he stressed.
In the Dáil, the Minister for Education said he hoped his review on third-level fees would be available shortly. He could give no guarantee that the student support system would remain as it was for the forthcoming academic year.