Labour looks set to suffer electoral reversal

Labour this morning seemed set to suffer its biggest electoral reversal under Mr Tony Blair's leadership, with the Conservatives…

Labour this morning seemed set to suffer its biggest electoral reversal under Mr Tony Blair's leadership, with the Conservatives poised to claim outright victory in Britain's European election.

With a final result declared in only one region, the North East, the BBC was predicting the Tories would win 37 per cent of the vote, to 28 per cent for Labour - and take 37 seats in the new European Parliament, to 29 for Labour, 10 Liberal Democrats, two each for Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party, one Green and three Others, including one projected seat for the UK Independence Party.

With the lowest-ever turnout of just 23 per cent, the Conservatives appeared set to claim victory in a majority of Westminster constituencies throughout Britain. And to compound a night of misery for the government, early indications suggested Labour would trail Plaid Cymru in Wales, and might also come second behind the SNP in Scotland.

When the votes were totalled for the North East region at 11.30 p.m. Labour led the field with 42 per cent of the vote, to claim three of the four seats in its traditional stronghold. But its 162,573 total represented a drop of 22 per cent on its general election showing in 1997, with the Conservatives up eight points, the Liberal Democrats up one, and Others up 14. The projected swing from Labour to the Conservatives was put at 15 per cent.

READ MORE

Mrs Margaret Beckett, the cabinet minister in charge of Labour campaigning, admitted the results were "very disappointing." But polling expert Prof Anthony King noted that, if the BBC's forecast was correct, Labour's performance was worse than in the European elections which followed Mrs Thatcher's first general election victory in 1979.

Conservative strategists were delighted with projected results which would suggest a meaningful recovery from the black-hole of 1997, secure Mr William Hague from any leadership challenge, and apparently vindicate his decision to make the euro an issue in the campaign.

And while the results on such a low poll hold no real clues about the outcome of the next general election, or a referendum on the euro, Labour's inquest - foll owing hard on disappointing results in the devolved elections in Wales, and a mere 20 per cent turnout in the Leeds by-election on Thursday - is bound to focus on evidence of growing alienation among its most traditional supporters, as the leaderships continues to woo Middle England. Last Thursday's turnout in Tory-held Commons seats in England was 26 per cent, compared to 20 per cent and less in "safe" Labour seats.

Labour had explained away disappointing turnouts, and results, in last month's local elections as symptomatic of the "politics of contentment".