Key paper on North-South body to be discussed in London talks

The statement by the Ulster Freedom Fighters that its "measured military response" has now probably concluded means - if it is…

The statement by the Ulster Freedom Fighters that its "measured military response" has now probably concluded means - if it is accepted as a genuine undertaking - that the organisation's political wing, the Ulster Democratic Party, will not be expelled from the multi-party talks.

Shooting innocent Catholics is stretching the term "military" to a point where the word becomes meaningless. But despite the revulsion generated by these actions, there was clearly a reluctance among mainstream politicians to turn Mr Gary McMichael out in the cold because his credentials as a peacemaker are so widely accepted.

Once the RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, had publicly endorsed what even the dogs in the street were saying, namely, that the UFF was involved in recent attacks, there was no hiding-place politically for the loyalist paramilitary group.

On the diplomatic front there were initial reports yesterday of difficulties between Dublin and London over the contents of the strand two document on NorthSouth arrangements to be discussed during the three-day session of the talks in London which starts on Monday.

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The liaison committee of British and Irish civil servants failed to arrive at an agreed text at its meeting in Iveagh House on Thursday. The to-ing and fro-ing continued yesterday and by the evening agreement was said to be close. Dublin wanted a paper that would be fairly prescriptive in tone and as close as possible to the provisions of the Framework Document.

London was happy to see the Framework provisions included but as one of a number of options, in view of the fact that the Ulster Unionists are strong opponents of the Framework. The final format adopted was a series of questions aimed partly at outlining the views of the two governments but also at eliciting the real positions of the various parties as distinct from the rhetoric reserved for press conferences.

Although the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, played down the importance of this latest document at the Belfast Forum yesterday, for nationalists it is the key paper, the one that goes to the heart of the matter.

Crudely put, if nationalists are going to agree to an assembly and tolerate a dilution of Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution they will require a strong and vibrant North-South council with executive powers.

The significance for ordinary nationalists is that through this body, the Republic will be inextricably involved in the North's life.

The continuing complaints from Sinn Fein about the Propositions on Heads of Agreement, combined with the IRA statement issued on Wednesday night, will have increased the pressure on Dublin's negotiators and their political masters. Meanwhile Sinn Fein can boast another political success with its candidate, Mr Terence Brogan, winning this week's by-election to Omagh District Council with over 50 per cent of the valid vote.

The content of the IRA statement was unremarkable but the fact it was issued at all caused shudders down a few spines. There is a general belief that the IRA will be reviewing the overall situation at the end of March, which is also the approximate target-date for the two governments to produce a draft agreement for presentation to the multi-party talks. The republican movement and its supporters know they are not going to get everything they want but there are certain elements - not all of them spelt out as yet - that must be in the settlement paper if the IRA is to remain on ceasefire.

At the same time the wave of loyalist violence, sometimes in response to the terrible deeds of the INLA and sometimes motivated by sheer sectarianism, is putting the IRA under pressure to resume the role of active defender of threatened nationalist communities. We have already seen a drugs-related shooting in Belfast which was widely attributed to the IRA.

In any deal, the main focus of attention, not just for the IRA, but for many grass-roots nationalists will be the North-South relationship. As one talks insider said in relation to the document for next week's talks: "Dublin has to get this right. It has to make sure that the message gets across that this element is going to be substantive and meaningful."

Getting it right seemed to take longer than expected. Parties had been primed to receive the paper yesterday but latest reports indicate it may not be circulated until Monday morning at the earliest. Other documents on the strand three relationship between the two islands and the state of existing North-South co-operation are also in the pipeline.

Dublin produced the first draft on Thursday and London responded with a counter-text late that evening. The final five per cent is due to be agreed over the weekend. The questions format is not likely to appeal to the SDLP because it smacks too much of the "options" approach, and senior politicians in the two governments may yet have to get involved. The final text of the propositions document was hammered out by the two government heads between 7 a.m and midnight on Sunday, January 11th, and a senior civil servant from the Department of the Taoiseach drove to Belfast at 6.30 next morning with his copy of the text.

There have been second thoughts about specifying the areas the proposed North-South council would deal with. These had been tentatively identified as culture, heritage, marine research, education, agriculture and tourism. These are known in peace process-speak as "division two" issues because they are relatively uncontroversial. Issues like justice and security would come into division one. However, in the interests of delicacy it has apparently been decided not to have a list at all.

Unionists essentially want little more than a North-South version of the Rotary Club where ministers from Dublin would meet perhaps once a month with heads of department from a Northern Ireland administration to discuss entirely voluntary co-operation on matters of mutual interest. Republicans want at the very least an embryo governmental structure to facilitate the transition to a united Ireland in 10 or 15 years.

The SDLP approach is broadly in line with Dublin's and the party rejects the claim that a NorthSouth council would reinforce partition. Mr Sean Farren from the SDLP talks team said: "Given a capacity to develop through agreement such a council would involve representatives from both parts of Ireland in charting, together, the future of the whole island - the very antithesis of partition."

We may be entering the last chapter of the peace process saga. If the ministers and mandarins get it right, the discussion could be brought onto a new level over the next few weeks. Many conflicting interests are involved and it will take something close to political genius to satisfy or at least placate them all. The price of success is peace and a place in the history books; the price of failure does not bear thinking about.