Two by-elections and three referendums are pending and the Government isn't looking forward to any of them. The byelections are due next month; the referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty will most likely be held in May to avoid destabilising Government plans for deciding the rate of entry to EMU on May 1st, and the two referendums on the most problematic issue of all - Northern Ireland - are aimed at June.
The Government needs to win at least one by-election, so last June's result stands. If it wins both it will be ecstatic; if it looses both it will be despondent. Apart from the difference between confidence and insecurity the result will have little effect. This Government will carry on, bar the unforeseen banana skin.
On Amsterdam, the Government and most of the Opposition desperately want a win so the process of European integration can continue. Strangely its ability to campaign for a Yes vote is strictly curtailed; under the McKenna judgment it can speak in favour but it can't spend in favour unless it provides equal funds for the anti lobby. Of course if it doesn't get the result it wants, the Government may try again.
The Northern referendums are the most vital because, it will be argued, they represent the difference between war and peace. One will present the terms of the settlement in the North including the formula for a new Northern assembly, cross-Border bodies and security measures, which the British and Irish governments want agreed by May; the other will cover changes to Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution, and the Government of Ireland Act. If agreement in the North is reached the whole island could be voting on the same day in June.
But will they be carried? One may be and one may not. If the unionists recommend them (and the British government may have to impose parts of the package they will not agree), they will pass in the North. If John Hume favours the terms they should pass in the Republic. It will be a compromise, so no one will be happy; least of all possibly, the unionists, who never wanted any change at all. The most hopeful scenario is that the referendums will be carried, North and South, but there could still be an eruption of violence this summer before the new regime is implemented in the autumn.