Increase in defence spending likely to take at least three years

An increase in military spending as recommended by the recent Commission on the Defence Forces is unlikely to be completed until at least 2025.

Last February the commission reported that the Defence Forces were not currently capable of credibly defending the country against attack, and put forward various proposals for increased funding.

The most ambitious proposals, which it called Level of Ambition 3, called for a three-fold increase in defence spending, bringing it to €3 billion a year and roughly in line with other small European countries.

It also put forward in intermediate proposal, Level of Ambition 2, which would address urgent capability gaps and allow for some limited upgrades. Minister for Defence Simon Coveney has said he will deliver his recommendation to Cabinet next month.

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Defence sources said the option currently being considered is a “Level of Ambition 2.5”. The Minister would recommend adopting most, if not all, of the recommendations in Level of Ambition 2, while picking some of those laid out in the most ambitious proposal.

This would see the Defence Forces receiving hugely increased cyber capabilities and a primary radar system which would allow it to monitor effectively Irish skies for the first time.

It would also receive increased air lift capacity, improved armoured personnel carriers and an increase in numbers in the Naval Service to allow ships to spend more time at sea.

However, the purchase of a squadron of jet fighters, as recommended in Level of Ambition 3, is not being considered, it is understood. This would mean Britain's RAF would still be responsible for responding to any airborne incursion over Ireland.

The proposals would cost between €600 million and €1 billion extra a year, it was estimated.

The plan is to gradually ramp up defence spending over the next several years. Sources said it will be at least 2025 before this funding level is achieved.

Reaction force

An increase in defence spending is also required under the EU’s Strategic Compass which was endorsed by member states last month after several years of negotiation. The Strategic Compass will also see the creation of a 5,000-strong EU rapid reaction force to respond to crises. Mr Coveney has said Ireland is likely to contribute to the force.

Mr Coveney told an audience in Washington last Thursday that Ireland would be making “quite significant financial decisions” in the next few months on raising its level of expenditure on defence, as well as on increasing numbers and boosting military infrastructure.

The Minister said he believed this was an extra €500 million a year on defence spending and the minimum amount required. However, he said this level of increased resources could not be achieved in one year or over a short number of years.

"My job is to ensure there is a very clear evidence base for the case we will be making to Government and also that there is a recognition of the context in which we are having this political debate – war in Europe, " he said.