IRA fails to divert Trimble from onslaught on Robinson

Analysis: The IRA obviously has such respect for the theatrical competence of Mr David Trimble that on Saturday it attempted…

Analysis: The IRA obviously has such respect for the theatrical competence of Mr David Trimble that on Saturday it attempted to upstage him. David Trimble is preparing to fight a battle on all fronts, writes Gerry Moriarty.

After his keynote address to the annual Ulster Unionist Party conference on Derry's west bank, Mr Trimble was geared to top the headlines on the TV and radio news programmes for the rest of the day.

But then the IRA issued a statement. This didn't have the full P. O'Neill imprimatur, but came from a "senior IRA source" who said there was considerable concern within the organisation at recent developments - shorthand for the current political meltdown.

The source complained of sustained efforts to portray the IRA as a threat to the peace process. "The IRA is not a threat to the peace process and will not accept the imposition of unrealisable demands," he added.

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With the adrenalin still flowing after his address, Mr Trimble, when doorstepped, was in no mood to admit any value to the IRA statement. No threat to the peace process? Therefore, were Ulster Unionists just imagining the veracity of recent allegations against the IRA? Hardly, thought Mr Trimble.

The IRA did indeed steal a little of Mr Trimble's thunder, but at the same time both the statement and Mr Trimble's passionately delivered speech were a form of overture for the politics of the weeks and months ahead.

The weekend statement from "Real IRA" prisoners in Portlaoise that the bulk of its membership was disbanding is significant too in that it points to a widening republican acceptance of the futility of paramilitarism.

The IRA, in its opening gambit, spoke of "unrealisable demands", which obviously was a reference to disbandment and was in line with Mr Gerry Adams's recent comment that this was an expectation of "Santa Claus" proportions.

Mr Trimble in turn said unionists would not be satisfied with "some phantom disbandment". He accepted that republicans had moved and were not "wholly unreconstructed" but that in light of Colombia, Castlereagh, and alleged spy rings, the word of republicans was as "devalued as Argentina's currency".

"Words like 'the war is over' that once have meant something cut no ice today," insisted Mr Trimble, obviously bolstered by Mr Tony Blair's Belfast speech.

Here was no disbandment pitched against full disbandment. Somewhere between these two positions lies the probable solution to the current political deadlock.

That's work for the time ahead. In the meantime, Mr Trimble's business on Saturday was rallying the party for other travails, and there are plenty of them, chief of which will be resisting the electoral threat from the Democratic Unionist Party.

Which explains why Mr Trimble reserved his most aggressive comments for the DUP, with a sideswipe against the "sleek mandarins" in the Department of Foreign Affairs who now appear to view Mr Peter Robinson (rather than Mr Trimble) as the unionist politician who could deliver a lasting political settlement.

"Let's be honest, Peter Robinson couldn't even deliver the milk," declared Mr Trimble. He described the DUP as the party of the "big lie and the half truth", and in the good old spirit of divide and conquer he claimed Mr Robinson had manoeuvred Ian Paisley into becoming "in deeds, if not words, a supporter of the agreement".

Recalling how a similar "Well done, David [Trimble\]" comment from Mr Adams had damaged his leadership of unionism Mr Trimble said: "Well done, Peter", hoping it would have the same deleterious effect on the DUP deputy leader.

He was warmly applauded when he turned his venom on the loyalist paramilitaries. Some people might be tempted to ignore their campaign of intimidation and terror but "they were ignoring too the corrupting influence of loyalist violence and crime on their own communities".

And Mr Trimble also forced the party to face up to what for them is a terrifying prospect. "Unionists must realise that they can't afford to go on squabbling or else they will see Sinn Féin as the largest party in Northern Ireland. That had to be said."

The Ulster Unionist Party is sorely in need of reorganisation. There was an initial attempt on Saturday to reform the rules where 120 or more members rather than a mere 60, as at present, would be required to requisition divisive meetings of the 900-member Ulster Unionist Council.

Mr David Burnside had a lash at the leadership over this proposal but Ms Joan Carson, a retiring MLA and former school head, retorted that "no school principal can allow the children to dictate the rules".

Moreover, of the 900 council members about 120 belong to the Orange Order, some of whom in theory could be DUP members dictating Ulster Unionist policy. Party chairman Mr James Cooper, who, like Mr Trimble, views this as an undemocratic anomaly, said discussions with the order were "going around in circles" and getting nowhere.

Party president the Rev Martin Smyth, a former head of the Orange Order, left delegates in no doubt that he and like-minded Orangemen would continue to resist and filibuster. The party made a brave attempt at presenting a show of unity, but it is generally an illusion. Deep down the pros and the antis despise each other.

The Jeffrey Donaldsons and the David Burnsides kept to their own side of the conference hall at the Millennium Forum in Derry while the David Trimbles and James Coopers held to their space.

But despite the internal divisions and the political convulsions for once, Ulster Unionists were not on the back foot. And while there is a facade of unity, it is better than no unity at all.