Honeymoon period is continuing for the Government

The last opinion poll, published two weeks ago following the four-month hiatus due to the foot-and-mouth restrictions, showed…

The last opinion poll, published two weeks ago following the four-month hiatus due to the foot-and-mouth restrictions, showed that support for the two Government parties had remained consistent and stable at its January level.

This situation prevailed in spite of the fact that the main Government party had to contend with a number of background disruptions, any one of which had the potential to damage its support.

To date, however, the Taoiseach has succeeded in distancing himself and his party from any unfavourable spin-off arising from either tribunal revelations or, more surprisingly, internal party misdemeanours.

The advent of the forthcoming referendums, and the requirement to assess electorate reaction in the final stages of the campaign, provided another opportunity to measure party support levels, and also to identify the perceived issues which are most likely to influence voters in the general election - which is due to take place within the next 12 months.

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Finally, preferences relating to a number of coalition options, and reaction to the concept of Sinn Fein participation in the next coalition government, were also measured. The survey was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday last. The first message from today's figures is that the honeymoon for the Government, and by extension for the Fianna Fail party, continues with satisfaction ratings up three points to 62 per cent and support for the main Government party remaining solid and stable.

In fact, core support for all parties and Independents has remained remarkably stable over the past two weeks; the only movements were of the order of one point up or down, and none can be interpreted as being in any sense significant. While there has been little notable activity except a Cabinet meeting in Kerry and a few further tribunal revelations, the findings represent an extension of the good news of two weeks ago for the Government.

Although the upturn in Government satisfaction ratings is contributed to exclusively by a corresponding increase among Fianna Fail and PD supporters themselves, it is also notable that many supporters of all other parties and independents - majorities in some instances - are satisfied with the Government.

The adjusted figures for the two main parties (Tables A & B) are identical to those of two weeks ago, and again the minor variations among other parties down the line are of no statistical significance.

However, the Dublin analysis shows that the Labour Party has regained second place, having increased its core vote by five points over the past two weeks, and the last poll would appear to have served as a wake-up call.

Not surprisingly, considering the very favourable impact of the Government - 62 per cent represents its highest rating for two and a half years - the current Coalition combination is positioned considerably ahead of the other four options in the survey (Table C).

However, the 38 per cent who favour the present administration, is four points below the combined core vote of the two Government parties, and it is noticeable that 20 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters would prefer a FF/Labour coalition, while 25 per cent of PD supporters would in turn prefer an FG/Labour/PD coalition.

Two-thirds of Labour supporters would opt for an alignment with Fine Gael, and this is more than reciprocated by the fact that nine Fine Gael supporters in every 10 would choose Labour as their government partner, with the addition of either the Green or PD parties if required.

Finally, Sinn Fein voters have the least interest in the composition of possible coalitions, with half expressing no preference.

A majority of supporters of all parties - except Fine Gael - would accept Sinn Fein as part of the next coalition government, and the concept was quite favourably received, with 47 per cent positively disposed (Table E).

The analyses also provide a clue as to the Sinn Fein disinterest in the other coalition options in that there is an unambiguous green light among party supporters for participation in a coalition government. The party profile is under 34 and male, and at this stage they are looking towards having a share of the action.

With the next election due within 12 months, the informal campaign is now well under way, and today the electorate makes its contribution to the equation. Health and crime are currently seen as the two most important issues, which will influence their decision on the day.

The developing situation reflects an interesting dichotomy.

On the one hand, we have a quiescent electorate currently satisfied with its lot in a glowing economy, while at the same time many are also telling the establishment that they will be influenced in the next election by the manner in which such issues as health, crime, corruption, education and traffic are being addressed.

The message is relevant - and timely.