Historic march of perhaps 500,000 shows opposition cannot be stopped

THERE are times which make themselves known instantly as historical turning points. I think I have seen three of them. The first was the collapse of the hardline Soviet coup in Moscow in 1991, the second was the arrival of Nelson Mandela in Bophuthatswana in 1994 and the third was last night in Belgrade.

The same feeling of the unstoppable will of the people was present on all three occasions: tentatively in Moscow, strongly in Mmbatho and overwhelmingly in the centre of Belgrade.

I have never seen or been in a bigger crowd. Those who reckon they can estimate vast gatherings put the figure at 250,000 around Republic Square at 10 p.m. when the speeches were due to start. Two hours later, when the speeches still had not started, the figure 300,000 was mentioned and after midnight the numbers had reached inestimable proportions - 400,000, half a million, who knows?

Relatively tiny marches over a day or two had forced victory for those in Bulgaria who wanted early elections against an extremely unpopular but democratically elected government and one young demonstrator put it to me: "The Bulgarians don't have Milosevic to contend with."

But it was clear last night that the Serbians won't have President Slobodon Milosevic for long. It was one of those times when it was clear that the will of the demonstrators could not, would not, be successfully opposed.

The occasion of the massive gathering was, ostensibly, the celebration of the Orthodox New Year's Eve; a harkening back to the old Julian calendar, an occasion rated until recently the equivalent of St Brigid's Day in mainland Ireland, Queen Elizabeth's unofficial birthday in the neighbouring island or the third of July in France.

The funny hats, the rockets, the squibs, the whistles and the general camaraderie emphasised the point that Mr Milosevic's rule has ended in all but name. If he was still really and truly in power none of this would have been permitted to happen: the secret police would have stormed Belgrade and put a stop to it all.

Strangely the leaders of the opposition Zajedno coalition failed to rise to the occasion. Mr Vuk Draskovic of Serbian Renewal who once outdid Mr Milosevic in his militant nationalism proclaimed "Serbian Freedom". Mr Zoran Djindjic, a former supporter of Mr Radovan Karadzic, turned pragmatic moderate, said that victory would be achieved in 1997. The people on the streets were already enjoying their undeclared freedom, the helmeted, visored, flak jacketed, extraordinarily well paid police had taken a day off from blockading the inhabitants and they enjoyed the fact. The country boys in uniform may be back to put manners on the city slickers later today but things will never be the same again.

On the political front President Milosevic showed no signs of making major concessions and in fact appeared to be turning the clock back.

The electoral commission in Nis, Serbia's second city, yesterday refused to re instate the Zajedno victory there despite promises from the authorities that, this would be done. This means that only a handful of smaller municipals councils have been, conceded to the opposition.

While political analysts believe that Mr Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) is now split on the issue between hardliners who want to hold on to power and privileges and liberals and realists who are prepared to concede there were signs also of a split in the Yugoslav army.

Reports in Belgrade suggest that the army's 72nd Brigade under the command of Gen Ojdanic, a close friend of the Police Minister, Mr Radovan Stojcic Badze, is prepared to support Mr Milosevic despite a statement from the Chief of Staff, Gen Momcilo Perisic, declaring the army neutral.

The opposition newspaper Demokratia has reported that the 72nd division has been given a large consignment of police uniforms to back up the proMilosevic police force should a decision be made to crush the demonstrations.

International pressure on Mr Milosevic has included a report from the OSCE declaring support for opposition claims of electoral victory, visits by the Italian Foreign Minister, Mr Lamberto Dini, last month and by and his Greek counterpart, Mr Theodoros, Pangalos, on Sunday.

Mr Pangalos's warning of economic catastrophe should the results not be re instated was backed up yesterday by the special envoy to Bosnia, the former Swedish prime minister, Mr Carl Bildt, who said: "I think Serbia is on the brink of financial disaster."

Withdrawal of investment and credits by the West would be enough to bring Serbia's ailing economy to the edge of ruin but a re introduction of sanctions which has been threatened by Germany and the US is unlikely to happen.

Firstly sanctions could serve to turn Serbian public opinion away from the opposition and back to Mr Milosevic while, secondly, any attempt to reintroduce sanctions is likely to be vetoed by the Russian Federation at the UN Security Council.