Growing anxiety over migrant labour

There is strong public opposition to one of Ireland's most fundamental economic requirements - more foreign workers

There is strong public opposition to one of Ireland's most fundamental economic requirements - more foreign workers. Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent, analyses the poll results

Economic growth has become the central aim not just of Government economic policy, but of Government policy in general. To fuel the expected growth levels, it is estimated that some 50,000 extra workers are required by Irish employers each year in the immediate future. And with close to full employment in Ireland, these workers can only come from abroad.

To sum up the findings of this poll, clear majorities think the presence of foreign workers is good for the Irish economy and good for Irish society.

But a large majority wants their number frozen or reduced, and favours the introduction of a work-permit scheme to control labour migration into Ireland.

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As these workers keep coming at a rate of perhaps over 100 a day - attracted by Irish employers crying out for extra staff - 70 per cent of Irish people are saying they don't want any more of them here, and a large minority of these would like to see at least some of them go home again.

Before anyone is tempted to dismiss this as motivated by unspoken racial prejudice, they should examine the public concerns about immigrant labour that are expressed in the poll results.

On the question of whether migrant labour is making it harder for Irish people to get jobs, some 53 per cent say it is, 41 per cent that it is not and 6 per cent don't know.

There is no current evidence to back the fears about jobs - there has been no increase in unemployment despite the large numbers of immigrant workers coming. But the Irish Ferries dispute - in which Irish workers were to be made redundant and replaced by lower-paid foreigners - is almost certain to have played a role.

On the question of whether the presence of foreign workers threatens pay levels, the concern is even more pronounced.

Some 63 per cent agree that it is pushing down pay and working conditions, 27 per cent that it is not and 10 per cent have no opinion. This concern is markedly more pronounced among the lower paid.

In 2005, average pay levels across the economy continued to rise faster than inflation, so there has in fact been no general depression of the rate of increase in pay. Labour's Pat Rabbitte has referred to anecdotal evidence that this is nevertheless happening in certain sectors, notably construction, and Siptu has backed up this view.

"Anecdotal evidence" abounds in societies with significant immigration.

There was a canard, commonly heard in pubs and taxi cabs several years ago, that the welfare authorities were buying cars for Nigerians, and putting foreigners ahead of Irish people on housing lists. So beware of "anecdotal evidence".

However, Pat Rabbitte's anecdotal evidence has a more reasonable basis.

It doesn't take an economic genius to figure out that if tens of thousands of skilled workers used to working in their home countries for far less than the Irish rates come here to work, this increased supply has the potential to push down wages. His suggestion that such workers may actually be displacing Irish workers by putting them out of jobs - a concern backed at the weekend by Fianna Fáil's Ned O'Keeffe who cited more "anecdotal evidence" from his constituency clinics - has less credibility in an economy close to full employment.

But it is clear that the public concern about immigrant labour is based largely on economic arguments - valid or otherwise - rather than racial prejudice.

Indeed, the fact that despite these fears, a majority agrees that the presence of foreign workers in Ireland is not only good for the economy but good for Irish society in general, shows there is potential to build a strong consensus behind the idea of a continued orderly change in Irish society towards a more multicultural model.

But the public, in particular lower-paid workers, need to be convinced that the steady arrival of more and more foreign workers will not be used to encourage the much-feared "race to the bottom" in terms of wages and working conditions, particularly if there is ever an economic downturn.

The trade unions have been pushing this agenda, which essentially involves the stricter enforcement of labour laws and regulations.

A political consensus appears to be forming around this principle, with the Government expected to respond to trade union demands during upcoming social partnership talks.

Labour has already been to the fore on the issue, while Fine Gael's Phil Hogan also said yesterday that he wanted to see an adequate labour inspectorate.

It seems doubtful that the reintroduction of a work-permit regime for east European workers, just two years after we dropped it, is a viable option.

A work-permit regime that would control the type of workers that come here would be cumbersome.

Anyway, by 2011 - five years hence - no EU member state will be allowed impose restrictions on workers from another.

If the Government is to reduce public anxiety - informed by partial information or simply misinformation - it has a major programme of work in front of it. If it doesn't move quickly to defuse the issue well in advance of the next general election, that campaign could be very nasty.

For there is another piece of anecdotal evidence that emerged from canvassers from all parties in the last general election.

This is that the number one issue raised on very many doorsteps in urban areas during that campaign was not health, or the economy, but the presence of significant numbers of foreigners in Ireland.

Those who agree that immigration is essential to future prosperity, and a good thing in itself, need to convince voters that it is not a threat.