Gardai, RUC believe dissidents' activities are severely curtailed

Senior gardai believe they have delivered a very serious, possibly fatal, blow to the republican dissidents who had been planning…

Senior gardai believe they have delivered a very serious, possibly fatal, blow to the republican dissidents who had been planning to carry out bombing attacks in Northern Ireland to upset the peace process.

The discovery of "booster" charges of plastic explosive with detonators, together with a rocket launcher in Co Meath last month by the gardai, may well have averted a renewed bombing campaign by dissident republicans.

The republican group, styling itself Oglaigh na hEireann and also known as the "Real IRA", was intending to place the plastic explosive charges in large bombs made up mostly of fertiliser and sugar, like the device used at Omagh in August last year which killed 29 people. The plastic explosive would increase the destructive power of the fertiliser bombs.

The exact targets of the dissident bombers are not known, but it is felt likely they could have been aimed at both civilian and security targets in the North.

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It is believed the leadership and morale of the republican dissidents have been severely damaged by the Garda action.

It also appears it was not a coincidence that within a week of the Garda action against the republican dissidents, the RUC moved against the loyalist dissidents associated with the groups styling themselves the Orange Volunteers and the Red Hand Defenders. Significant arms seizures, documents and arrests were also made by the RUC.

According to sources in both police forces, there is satisfaction that the activities of both sets of dissidents have been severely curtailed. Neither police force, however, is prepared to accept the dissidents have been crushed - yet.

Senior sources say there could still be "one-off" type attacks. The "booster" charges found in Co Meath last month were designed to be simple to use and the gardai are uncertain how many were made. It is known that two members of the "Real IRA" acquired the explosives and the rocket launcher from sources in former Yugoslavia. It is not clear, however, how much weaponry was acquired by the group.

However, both sets of dissidents must realise their organisations have been heavily damaged by police action and may be penetrated by agents. Key figures from both sides have been arrested and remaining leading figures may also soon face charges.

There are likely to be further moves against the dissidents living in the Republic. They could face seizure of their lands or property where it was shown that these were used for storing weapons or manufacturing bombs under the post-Omagh antiterrorist legislation. A second Special Court is also likely to come into use to move forward cases involving the dissidents.

The successes of both police forces have removed the grounds for one of the consistent arguments used by the Provisional IRA and other paramilitary groups involved in the Belfast Agreement process against decommissioning their weapons. The IRA, according to sources close to the talks, has insisted dissidents would seize on any decommissioning as evidence of "capitulation".

The dissidents' principal motivation is opposition to the peace process and ceasefires in the North. It is known they hope to derail the political process and to attract other Provisional IRA members who are unhappy with the direction taken by their leadership.

After the Omagh atrocity the Provisional IRA moved against the dissidents, issuing death threats and assaulting a number of people, including the "Real IRA" leader at his home in Co Louth.

A similar situation took place on the loyalist side. The Ulster Defence Association and Ulster Volunteer Force moved against the dissidents this summer and stopped them carrying out widespread attacks on Catholic civilians. It is known both the UDA and UVF leaders were concerned there could be growing support for the loyalist dissidents if the Stormont process was seen to be moving against the unionist cause.

However, it is understood that dissidents on both sides were encouraged by the difficulties encountered at the Stormont talks in the autumn, and anti-ceasefire elements on both sides were contemplating the use of violence to create further difficulties for the talks process.

The co-ordinated police action against dissidents has removed the immediate threat of renewed terrorist violence, one of the main obstacles to decommissioning.