CONGO:Gen Laurent Nkunka's troops continue the rebellion, but his days may be numbered, writes Félim McMahonin Democratic Republic of Congo
Fighting between troops loyal to renegade general Laurent Nkunda and the Congolese army broke out again over the weekend in the explosive eastern province of North Kivu.
Congolese military sources blamed Gen Nkunda's troops for provoking the latest battle, although a United Nations spokesman suggested the Congolese army had fired the first shots.
Maj Ajay Dalal, a spokesman for Indian peacekeepers in the area, also said the Congolese army had lost several positions around the town of Sake in Saturday's fighting.
Situated 25km (16 miles) west of the provincial capital Goma, which lies on the border with Rwanda, Sake is a few kilometres from Gen Nkunda's current stronghold.
The town was briefly taken over by the rebel general's forces two weeks ago, before being recaptured by the Congolese army backed by UN troops, tanks and helicopter gunships.
Gen Nkunda's troops, thought to number about 1,500, hold sway over a large part of the surrounding countryside, which is dominated by Rwandan-speaking Congolese Hutus and Tutsis.
His rebellion, launched over a year ago, is intricately bound to the need to protect the interests of both the local Rwandan-speaking community and North Kivu's powerful Rwandophone elite. They are collectively known as the Banyamulenge.
The presence of Rwandophones in Congo dates back to small-scale migrations during the 19th century. Many more were allowed to move to the area after the 1920s under the Belgian administration. In the 2003 transitional government, the Banyamulenge were disproportionately rewarded for their war efforts and virtually given control of the mineral-rich province of North Kivu.
The RCD political party, however, which represents them, suffered a whitewash in this year's elections. In the long run the influence and power of the Banyamulenge is on the wane. Indeed, many Rwandan-speaking Congolese have good reason to fear for the future in a country where hatred towards the Tutsi is rife as a result of their perceived role in the war.
Gen Nkunda and his troops, although branded as renegades, play a vital role in protecting the political interests of the Banyamulenge, and the mining and farming interests of the RCD leadership. Gen Nkunda himself is said to have at least three farms and 800 cattle.
In the past he has been supplied from Rwanda with the help of North Kivu's Rwandan-speaking governor Eugene Serufuli, whose charity has been linked to arms shipments bound for Gen Nkunda's cadres.
In August 2005 Gen Nkunda announced his latest rebellion, leading to clashes in January and February of this year, but no significant electoral disruption.
Since then his troops have been kidnapping demobilised children to swell their ranks. The RCD, meanwhile, is happy to use him as a bargaining chip.
It is no accident that the attack on Sake, although blamed on the shooting of a Tutsi in the town by a policeman, coincided with president Joseph Kabila's rival, Jean Pierre Bemba, tacitly accepting the incoming premier and making clear his own intentions to run for the Senate.
Gen Nkunda's days may be numbered, however. The UN's hand in eastern Congo has been greatly freed by the agreement of the last of the rebel groups in the Ituri region to lay down their arms, freeing up resources to tackle his insurrection. And two of Gen Nkunda's closest allies last week gave up the fight after more than 150 of his troops were killed battling the UN.
Mr Kabila's own people, however, may not be able to stomach a deal with the rebel.
A convoy of Congolese army trucks was stoned by angry mobs in Goma last week after rumours that the president was ready to do a deal with Gen Nkunda.