Second and third preference votes are likely to decide the outcome of the Tipperary South by-election which will be held on June 22nd.
When nominations closed yesterday there were six candidates, four of whom are regarded as having a serious chance of taking the seat held by the late Michael Ferris.
Cllr Barry O'Brien of Fianna Fail is regarded as the front runner, with Mrs Ellen Ferris of the Labour Party, Senator Tom Hayes of Fine Gael and Mr Seamus Healy of the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group tightly bunched behind him. The other candidates are Mary Heney (Christian Solidarity Party) and Raymond McInerny (Natural Law Party).
Transfers between the three trailing candidates, and the running order in which this happens, will decide the outcome.
Fianna Fail has recognised the vital nature of preferential votes and, while "talking down" its prospect of winning the seat, is campaigning strongly to secure second and third preference transfers from the other candidates.
The Labour Party is depending on a sympathy vote to retain the seat but is confident Mrs Ferris will poll ahead of Mr Healy - and possibly of Mr Hayes - on the first count and use their transfers to leapfrog over Mr O'Brien.
Similar computations are driving the election strategies of Fine Gael and the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group. Fine Gael is confident Mr Hayes will beat Mrs Ferris on the first count and it is looking to her transfers to get ahead of Mr Healy and to challenge Mr O'Brien in the final count.
Much will depend on whether the urban vote will come out in the present climate of political sleaze.