Even senior IRA members not aware bombing was planned

THE veteran IRA activist west Belfast was drinking with friends on Friday night when he heard news of the London bomb.

THE veteran IRA activist west Belfast was drinking with friends on Friday night when he heard news of the London bomb.

"We were shocked," he says, "but we were delighted not that people were hurt but that we'd finally stood up to the Brits."

That response is typical among IRA members. There is universal approval for the ending of the ceasefire. Activists believe that the peace process has run its course. "The British were given 18 months to sort out this problem but they did nothing", says one source.

"They wouldn't talk to Sinn Fein, they wouldn't release the prisoners. They were just intent on humiliating us. We've finally got our pride back. The bomb was long overdue. I hope there are more.

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Even dissidents were surprised at the timing of the bombing. "It came out of the blue," says another source. He expected a crisis, with an IRA warning that the ceasefire could be broken in a week.

But that was always unlikely. Such a threat would have led to widespread arrests and raids by police. Heightened security in England could even have thwarted the attack.

Apart from the IRA unit involved, only about a dozen people had prior knowledge of the bombing. Senior figures in IRA GHQ staff and the Belfast Brigade were kept in the dark. There is speculation that the bombers reported directly to the Army Council.

The decision to return to war in principle, according to one source, was made in early December just after Mr Bill Clinton's visit. Hard line republican leaders were disappointed that the US President had not pressurised the British government on all party talks.

They then moved to sideline Gerry Adams, he says. "From the start of the peace process, there were senior figures in the IRA who were very sceptical. But the Adams faction was in the driving seat so these people had to sit back.

"As doors opened for Sinn Fein in Dublin and Washington, the Adams faction grew stronger. People put a lot of hope on Irish America. But then when Clinton didn't deliver anything concrete just sound bites people became disenchanted.

"The ace had been played and nothing had happened. Adams lost sway in the movement. A decision was taken to break the ceasefire. It was really only a matter of when it would occur.

Army council hard liners also pointed to growing dissatisfaction with the peace process among members in Border areas and in Armagh and Belfast, the source says. Units in the south and east of Belfast were particularly impatient.

It might well have been only a matter of time before some broke away and resumed violence independently. The hard liners said there was a need to strike now in order to avoid a split.

The advocates of the peace process had always promised that there was no question of a split and that the movement would go forward united and, if necessary, "go over the cliff together". These arguments were now used by the militants.

Mr John Major's dismissal of the Mitchell report and his proposals for an elected talks convention last month further strengthened the hand of Army Council hard liners. "They were very pleased by Major's actions," says the source.

"They would not have been happy with Mitchell but Adams would have tried to sell it to them. They would have had problems. Again, Major weakened Adams's position."

Some grassroots members have been told nothing about the IRA's future plans. Others have been informed that the London bomb is not a one off and that more attacks are to follow. This could be true or it could just be aimed at keeping hard line activists happy.

The wording of the statement ending the ceasefire shows that the IRA has not completely written off the peace process. It spoke about its failure "thus far". It did not return to the former militant demand for a 32 county socialist republic. It called for "justice and an inclusive negotiated settlement".

"It sounded like the armed wing of the peace process," complained one dissident. He feared that the bomb was merely "a negotiating tactic" and that IRA leaders were not serious about returning to full scale war.

However, another source said the language in the statement did not matter. "The IRA leadership wants to preserve unity. It isn't going to say that the past 18 months have been a waste of time."

One scenario is that the Army Council will give Mr Adams a few weeks to secure some compromise from the governments. If that is not forthcoming, there could be more bombs in England and eventually a return to conflict in the North.

The ability to bomb London successfully after an 18 month cease fire has given the IRA a psychological boost.

"It proved wrong those who said that a ceasefire of more than a few months would wreck us," says a source. Grassroots IRA members are certainly not wary about a return to violence.

"We will take on the Brits like never before," says one source. "There will be bombs all over Britain. John Major will be sorry he ever messed us around."

Another source warns that the UVF and the UDA should "think twice" before calling off their ceasefire. "If loyalist death squads go back to killing Catholics, they will be swiftly dealt with."

Another IRA activist says he does not fear the introduction of internment or "shoot to kill" policies. "Whatever they give, we can take," he says.

Grassroots members may be ready for a fully fledged return to violence but the intentions of their lenders are far more difficult to read. "It's impossible to call," says one dissident.

"This time next year, the cease fire could be restored and we could all still be moaning about the peace process. Or we could be back in the middle of a brutal conflict with certain Sinn Fein leaders just names from the past."