FINLAND VOTES tomorrow in a tight general election likely to see large gains for a populist EU- critical party opposed to Portugal’s euro zone bailout.
On the back of popular opposition to the Greek and Irish assistance, the nationalist, anti-immigrant True Finns party has doubled its support within a year to challenge decades of consensus rule between Finland’s three main parties.
After winning 4 per cent in the 2007 election, the True Finns under leader Timo Soini may win about 17 per cent, a public television poll showed. The ruling Centre Party of outgoing prime minister Mari Kiviniemi has suffered a popularity dip after a political fundraising scandal forced her predecessor’s resignation last year.
With joint 53 per cent support, the coalition may be returned to office, though Ms Kiviniemi is likely to be replaced as prime minister by outgoing finance minister Jyrki Katainen, the 39-year-old leader of the National Coalition party.
True Finns’ framing the vote as a “referendum on Portugal” has forced the two leaders to toughen up their language on euro-zone bailouts.
“We have stood up for ourselves by the fact that the packages have tough conditions,” said Mr Katainen. “What is relevant for Finland is now that we can do everything we need to keep the stability in the European economy if Portugal is in danger of collapsing, as much as it annoys us.”
According to Mr Jussi Halla-Aho, a popular True Finns councillor in Helsinki, voters “don’t want money pouring out of Finland to Ireland and elsewhere”.
Regardless of their views, most Finns agree that this has been the most interesting election in years.
“Soini is a catalyst for everything that’s good and bad in Finland,” said Tiina (48) from Espoo. “He’s ready for power but his party isn’t, it grew too fast.”
Analysts say the secret of the True Finns’ success is its populist catch-all appeal to voters nervous about rapid change in Finland in the last decade.
“Economic gaps have grown in society, forestry has left our country and ordinary people don’t understand what’s going on any more,” said Prof Airi Hautamäki, a professor of social psychology at Helsinki’s Swedish School of Social Science. “This is an attempt to return to isolation, an unrealistic dream.”
For Tiina Helenius, Finland chief economist with the Landesbanken, the True Finns have capitalised on bailout resentment by reviving memories of Finland’s own economic crisis two decades ago.
“If they do well there’s a real possibility that the next government could be much more EU critical,” she said.
Support for the True Finns is largest outside Helsinki, in particular among rural and working-class voters – and disillusioned non-voters.
“It’s good that True Finns are different and have the courage to say things as they are,” said Ms Helena Huttunen, a tram driver from the Jakomaki suburb of Helsinki. “We’re expected to give money to others even though we survived our crisis on our own back in the 1990s.”
European Union officials say they are not overly concerned about the result. If necessary a Portugal bailout can be put together without Finland, but they say it is unlikely the country would do anything to isolate itself in Brussels.
True Finns leader Timo Soini is confident Sunday’s result could trigger a popular wave of discontent across the European continent.
“When you have a channel for scepticism to the European Union then 15 to 20 per cent of the vote is carried ,” he said. “If this can happen up north it will happen elsewhere in due course of time.”