EU troika on a delicate Middle East tightrope

THE STORY - apocryphal, I'm sure - is told that Pope John Paul once suggested there were two possible solutions to the conflict in the Middle East, one realistic, the other miraculous.

The realistic solution would consist in the miraculous intervention of a deity. The miraculous solution, in a voluntary agreement between the parties to the conflict.

The message Mr Dick Spring brings back from his whistle stop trip to Israel, Gaza, and Egypt to EU foreign ministers when they meet in 10 days is similarly pessimistic. Mistrust of the intentions of the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, is total among even the most moderate Arabs. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt feels he has been lied to, and King Hussein of Jordan is suggesting that the future of the Israel Jordan agreement is now in doubt.

Commentators like David Horovitz warn that Israel may not even implement its promised withdrawal from Hebron, and beyond that Mr Netanyahu is certainly signalling a complete abandonment of other aspects of the Oslo accord - a recipe for war, potentially within days.

And there are strong suggestions that even the Americans have lost their traditional influence over the Israeli government. Even President Clinton has told Mr Netanyahu he wants to see action on Oslo, that words are no longer enough. Is Mr Netanyahu listening to anyone?

The EU troika has to play a delicate balancing act if it is to contribute to the peace process. Its declarations are the product of careful consensus building within the Union between those like Germany, for whom criticism of Israel for historical reasons is anathema, and those, including Ireland, which take a more robust line, in part, no doubt the product of the experience of our own troops in southern Lebanon as targets for the guns of the Israeli backed militia, the SLA.

That reality merely reinforces the need to be perceived as even handed by both Israelis and Palestinians in order to retain the opportunity to influence both. Thus, until last week, the Union has sometimes gone to embarrassing lengths not to criticise Israeli actions.

After the shelling of the UN Qana base resulted in over 80 deaths, a statement from the Council of Ministers appeared to equate the actions of Hizbullah and Israeli forces, with an appeal to both sides to show restraint. Then, it was felt, there was the possibility that too explicit criticism might jeopardise the prospects of Shimon Peres's re election.

Last week, however, the worm turned. Impatience in European capitals at what was seen as Mr Netanyahu's equivocation brought a new bluntness. Close the tunnel, avoid provocation, get out of Hebron, implement Oslo, he was told.

Paymaster of the peace process, Israel's largest trading partner and the largest aid donor to the Palestinians, the EU has been seen as having little political clout to match its financial contribution. Last week Mr Netanyahu dismissed the EU's role as lacking in thought and coherence. But what was clear from the Tanaiste's visit is that there are indeed subtle but significant political ingredients that the Union can bring to the process.

The unanimity of last week's declaration and the urgency with which EU leaders dispatched Mr Spring have clearly taken the Israelis aback and were reflected in the willingness of Mr Netanyahu to see Mr Spring at such short notice.

Clearly, from his conversation with this correspondent, Mr Netanyahu is seriously worried by Europe's "lack of understanding" of the Israeli position, and he is understood to have spent much of his discussion with Mr Spring attempting to explain that.

(His contribution included a somewhat tactless explanation of his desire to make peace with the Palestinians to allow them to return to work in Israel - the alternative, Mr Netanyahu is understood to have said, is the need to bring in foreign labour who have the unfortunate habit of inter marrying with the locals).

EU officials insist that putting pressure on Mr Netanyahu will not extend to invoking the human rights clause of the association agreement with the Union, but argue that Israel will not want to further antagonise old friends.

Just as importantly, they feel that the EU's willingness to speak out and use its good offices can help Palestinian leaders to stay the hand of those who would pull the plug on the process now.

But the influence is still at the margins, able only to brake but not halt the centrifugal forces that are pulling the region back to the brink of war again.

A footnote ... it struck me somewhere on the road from Cairo to Ismailia as our driver swerved to avoid a loaded bus, the tyres screeching for the umpteenth time: should we really entrust a priceless national asset like our Foreign Minister to the care of these lunatics?

To travel in an Egyptian police convoy though Cairo and its outskirts, weaving in and out of packed traffic at speeds often well in excess of 80 m.p.h., is to participate in an utterly terrifying, unforgettable, hair greying experience somewhere between Le Mans and Mad Max.

Dick Spring laughed it off, describing with some amusement the horrified reaction of his companion, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Amr Moussa, to one near miss as he covered his face with his hands.