Q&A: Will record A-level give UK students the edge in CAO points race?

A-level results are out in the UK. How did students fare this year?

A-level results in the UK soared this year with record numbers achieving top grades.

The proportion awarded at least an A grade (80 per cent or more ) increased from 39 to 45 per cent. In Northern Ireland, almost 51 per cent of entries were awarded top grades.

These are astonishingly high figures compared to normal times. For example, in the North, the proportion awarded a top grade in 2019 was just 31 per cent.

Does this mean we can we expect similar levels of grade inflation when Leaving Cert results are issued?

It’s too early to say for sure – but there are are number of crucial differences in the way results are being calculated when you compare the UK and Ireland.

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In the UK, students’ grades were awarded by teachers. No algorithm was used, so teachers’ estimates have – apart from a handful of cases – remained unchanged.

In Ireland, Leaving Cert students had the option of accredited grades based on teachers’ estimates. Just like last year, this process involves a standardisation process or algorithm aimed at achieving consistency and fairness. This is likely to limit grade inflation by pulling some grades downwards to provide a set of results similar to last year.

However, Leaving Cert students also had the option of taking written exams. They involved fewer questions and additional choice this year, so these results are likely to be much stronger than during normal times.

Most observers expect to see grade inflation in Ireland this year – though not on the scale seen in the UK. We’ll know for sure when the Leaving Cert results are issued on September 3rd.

What are the implications of record-breaking results for UK students seeking CAO places in Ireland?

If grade inflation is significantly higher in the UK compared to the Republic, it will put these students at an advantage in the hunt for CAO places.

There are 2,400 UK applicants this year out of a total of almost 85,000. Their A-level results will be converted to CAO points using a published scale.

These numbers are unlikely to make much difference to most third -level courses, except in colleges such as Trinity College Dublin. It typically has the most UK applicants.

A spokeswoman for Trinity said the university’s goal is “to be as fair and equitable as possible to students from everywhere” and it will work with other universities to ensure that there is a level playing field for all applicants.

However, even if UK applicants have an edge on Leaving Cert applicants, they will have to wait until CAO offers are issued – on September 7th – before finding out if they have a place.

Lewis Purser, director of learning and teaching and academic affairs at the Irish Universities Association, says this is a strong disincentive for many applicants. Many UK applicants are high achievers and will likely be fielding offers from other universities in the meantime, he says.

Will high A-level grades disadvantage Leaving Cert students hoping to study in the UK?

Significant numbers of Irish students have opted to study in the UK for a variety of reasons such as wider course selection or easier access to certain courses.

Unlike other EU students, Irish students do not have to pay higher international fees due to rights maintained under the Common Travel Area.

Last year, 4,415 Irish domiciled students were accepted to UK universities, and this year there is a 26 per cent increase in applications. These students received conditional offers in May based on their predicted grades.

These offers still stand, according to universities contacted on Tuesday, despite the record high results in the UK.

For example, Ulster University confirmed it would honour all offers made to applicants from the Republic on the basis of the results provided by the State Examinations Commission.

The increased number of UK students going to higher education this year also means there will likely be far fewer spare places in the “clearing” process. This is equivalent to the CAO Round 2 and 3 offers.

Incidentally, Leaving Cert students who want to study in Northern Ireland or Great Britain will need to move fast: the deadline for accepting UK offers is September 7th – the same day that CAO offers are due to issue.