SEATTLE: As the world begins to run out of oil and reserves dwindle, so too are we likely to run out of children. Such is the disturbing theory forwarded by an anthropologist from Vanderbilt University.
Prof Virginia Abernethy put her proposition to a session at the American Association meeting now under way in Seattle, Washington. Her argument has two parts, first that the availability of petroleum has a fundamental impact on the strength of the world economy and second, a decline in energy use depresses the economy, in turn depressing the fertility rate.
"The availability of energy has been a major factor in population growth," Prof Abernethy said yesterday. When times are good people have more confidence and more resources that encourage higher birth rates. Conversely, when times are bad or uncertain, there is more caution in starting or adding to a family.
As energy availability declines, as it must, then costs for just about everything including food will rise, forcing an economic downturn. This in turn will involve a process described as the "economic opportunity hypothesis", something she first proposed 30 years ago.
What is important, she stated, is not how rich or poor the society is but the perception its people hold about how things are changing, either for better or worse. When the future appears threatening, people tend to exercise "reproductive caution", for example marrying later and putting more space between births within marriage. The process applies over the entire socio-economic range and level of education is not a factor despite the conventional wisdom, she said.
She put a number of examples from the US to support her view. The post second World War "baby boom" occurred during rapid economic production growth and a labour shortage. An expanding middle class "responded with early marriage and closely spaced births".
This came to an abrupt end with the 1961 recession, which brought rising energy costs.
Fertility rates fell to record lows in the US after the oil-induced recession of 1980-1981, when birth rates fell below death rates, causing population decline.
Improved standards of living will be difficult to sustain in the face of future rising energy costs, she suggested. "In these circumstances, fertility rates are unlikely to rise."