POLITICALLY WOUNDED:Robinson's standing as First Minister and party leader is not so certain, writes DAN KEENANin Co Down
THE HISTORY of unionism is littered with the bodies of defeated party leaders – those who fell victim to shock reversals in seats once considered as strongholds.
Peter Robinson can now be added to the list containing the names of Terence O’Neill, Harry West, Bob McCartney and David Trimble. Defeat in a high-profile poll triggered the beginning of the end if not the end itself.
Peter Robinson’s nightmare year, which began with revelations about his wife’s business and sexual affairs, worsened with stories about £5 land deals and links with developers. The early hours of Friday saw him lose the constituency where he was once thought of as invincible – and it’s only early May.
Accompanied by his son, Gareth, he looked a shocked and lonely figure at the election count in Newtownards in what was once his wife’s safe constituency. She is understood to be in London, still undergoing therapy for depression following the shock uncovering of the scandal now known locally as Irisgate. She was 59 when she had an affair with a 19-year-old whom she helped start in business as a cafe owner.
Robinson is politically wounded if not ruined altogether and his standing as First Minister and party leader is far from certain.
His speech following the announcement was measured and dignified and received in disbelieving silence. Many in the hall were Alliance workers equally stunned by their own astounding achievement. The First Minister portrayed himself as the reluctant candidate, forced into standing for Westminster despite remaining heavily involved at Stormont and his party’s new-found zeal for opposition to multiple mandates. He resolutely looked to whatever political future he has, talking up the importance of the year ahead at Stormont.
“I have a job to complete with my mandate at the Assembly,” he said, “and I will continue to carry out that important work”. He could scarcely look farther into the future for the simple reason that there may not be one.
Just before the Westminster election was called Robinson hosted a breakfast meeting with political reporters to preview the coming poll.
Asked about the threats from other parties the party leader replied with a question of his own: “What seats are we going to lose?” At that time the two constituencies with the smallest majorities – Upper Bann and in South Antrim – were seen as key targets by the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists. No one seriously believed the Alliance threat in East Belfast could rise above an amber alert. Opposition to Robinson from both Naomi Long and the Ulster Unionists’ Trevor Ringland would dent, but not defeat the sitting MP.
But in the few weeks that followed, major shifts took place in East Belfast. The electorate, or that section of it willing to vote tactically to depose the sitting MP, opted for Ms Long as the most credible pretender.
There were other factors too. Some DUP diehards who were switched off by the sense of scandal about their leader but who were the sort who could never jump ship, decided to remain at home on polling day.
Then again, Ms Long, boosted by her position as lord mayor of Belfast and by a reputation of hard work for the constituency, attracted voters who are relative newcomers to polling stations.
But for all that, there was no one at the count centre on election night who saw that all these factors would combine to defeat Robinson. Indeed, it was the new MP rather than the established figure who seemed the more stunned when the story of this election unfolded in the dramatic half hour before the declaration.
The result, of course, is felt well beyond the confines of unionist, Protestant East Belfast.
Sinn Féin in general and Martin McGuinness in particular have opted not to make hay while the DUP reels from the series of storms which have rocked it. But the Deputy First Minister must realise the relationship with the DUP leader cannot be the same at Stormont given the latter’s loss of standing with his own electorate.
Sinn Féin, and to a lesser extend the SDLP, can look to next year’s Assembly elections from positions of relative calm as the entire unionist landscape appears to be shifting.
The DUP still has eight Westminster MPs and a bloc of Stormont Executive ministries – but it is not the colossus which emerged confident and swaggering after the 2005 election.