When dissident unionists bring up Marshal Petain in conversation, you know their mood is not good. Petain equals Trimble, they claim, although they qualify this by pointing out that at least the ruler of Vichy France retained his gendarmerie while Trimble is about to lose the Royal Ulster Constabulary.
Another military man, Karl von Clausewitz, wrote that war was politics by other means: the Provisional republican doctrine is that politics is war by other means. And as in war, so in politics; the element of surprise is invaluable, and the demarche by the IRA last weekend caught the enemies of the peace process napping.
Members of the No lobby in unionism admit they were initially surprised and perturbed. Nothing if not honest, activists in the anti-agreement camp confess to doubts over their ability to win a majority if a meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council is convened.
They concede also that the pro-agreement leadership is working a lot harder to persuade the middle ground this time, with reports of a number of meetings to explain their approach to party members who also happen to be members of the Orange Order. Now there is talk of setting up a pressure group, tentatively entitled "New Union", based on support for the British link and the Belfast Agreement, which would act as a counterweight to "Union First".
Decommissioning is dead, long live what John Major has named "deactivation". Even anti-republicans admit the IRA statement was clever: so carefully constructed that it could not be dismissed out of hand. Dr Ian Paisley has circulated a five-page analysis which, unsurprisingly, concludes that P. O'Neill speaks with forked tongue. But the middle ground of unionism has been persuaded at least to read and consider the republican text.
With Peter Mandelson beating the drum in support and John Taylor putting its chances of acceptance at 90 per cent, prospects for the success of the Hillsborough package look reasonably promising at this stage.
UUP dissidents will, of course, pick themselves up to fight the good fight as they see it. But there have been moments of depression and anxiety in the last few days. They point out that the doubling of the Sinn Fein vote in the recent by-election to Omagh District Council attracted so much attention that few noticed the decline in the overall unionist vote. A sizeable number of unionists simply stayed at home.
Dissidents admit they are spending a lot of time these days persuading their friends and political contacts not to give up: stand your ground, and less of that defeatist talk about land prices in Scotland.
The Yes camp in unionism continues to hold out for concessions on the Patten report. But the pan-nationalist front has dug in its heels. A climbdown by Blair and Mandelson on the name or the badge will spoil the beautiful mood created at Hillsborough. Dublin sources point with confidence to Patten's unequivocal recommendation of a change of name and his call for a new badge and symbols "which are entirely free from any association with either the British or Irish states". Current thinking is said to be centred on ways of ensuring the RUC name lives on in some other context, perhaps in the form of an RUC foundation or institute, which would be a focus for those members of the community who have positive memories of the force.
Legislation establishing the new police service would no doubt have to note that it sprang from the RUC, but unionist hopes of a "double-barrelled" title are likely to be disappointed. London might be tempted, and some unionists are still holding out hopes that the Prime Minister would do the needful, but Dublin is holding firm and there has been a chorus of rejection from Sinn Fein representatives.
Perhaps the only card the unionist leadership has is to refrain from convening the Ulster Unionist Council, but that would probably be seen as a slap in the face for Mr Blair.
Meanwhile, the DUP has been taking stock of the situation. Whether or not Mr Robinson and Mr Dodds take their ministries this time could be critical. Failure to do so would leave the UUP in a minority position on the Executive, which could prove to be unsustainable. But it is not clear how the electorate would react to such a move from the DUP. Mr Trimble and his friends will be quick to point to the inconsistency of accepting portfolios in November - when, by common consent, the DUP ministers performed very creditably - and rejecting them in May.
It has been a good week for Mr Mandelson, who carried the can for the February 11th suspension even though he would not have signed the order without his Prime Minister's approval. His rapid redemption proves that, in politics as in other spheres, nothing succeeds like success, and you have to be a lucky general.
Rumours of his impending departure to London to work on the campaign for the next election are being discounted: he will have lots of free time as Secretary of State if the Executive gets up and running again. Having been unionism's "favourite son" to begin with, he now seems to be regarded with equal reserve by both sides - a good left-handed compliment in Northern politics.
Although it is still early days, the forecasting has already begun on the likely balance of forces at the UUC. Current thinking suggests a Trimble majority of 55 per cent, but if the tide stays with him this could improve.
Memories of the referendum campaign and the disastrous release of the Balcombe Street prisoners and Michael Stone have not faded, however. In Northern Ireland it is always best to expect the unexpected.
On the republican side, there is some annoyance with the SDLP for claiming credit over the latest British army demilitarisation moves. Republicans insist this was worked out between Mr Adams and Mr Blair during intensive contacts over recent weeks.
Gerry and Tony cut the deal, with Dublin egging them on from the sidelines; that is how republicans are presenting recent developments. They caution against giving excessive credit to a third party, e.g. Brian Cowen. After every victory there is always a dispute over the spoils.