Dissident MPs under pressure after UUC vote

They seem to have caught the history-making habit in Belfast

They seem to have caught the history-making habit in Belfast. For the assembled press corps at the Europa Hotel on Saturday it resolved itself into the usual scramble to get the story across.

The Willie Ross amendment was defeated by 515 votes to 238. The main motion endorsing the Good Friday agreement was carried by 540 to 210.

Somewhere between the first and second ballots three people had headed home (maybe in disgust) while another 25 had moved from outright rejection to support for the leader. Their last-minute switch enabled Mr Trimble to proclaim victory on the scale he himself had determined necessary.

The Ulster Unionist leader had taken 72 per cent of his ruling council with him, boosting predictions for a substantial Yes vote in the referendum on May 22nd, and, critically, breaking the psychological barrier which would impinge on the UUP's approach to the ultimately decisive Assembly elections on June 25th.

READ MORE

But it was some hours later - as the story was told on air and shaped for the first editions - that some veterans were able to reflect on the scale of what had happened.

Mr Ross, the defeated East Derry MP, understood it well enough when he charged that the vote had changed something of the fundamentals of the Ulster Unionist Party, and of unionism itself.

And if he maybe understated the position, he certainly did not intend to.

For after all the years of saying No, and despite plain and deep distaste for many aspects of the agreement, these solid men and women, the backbone of mainstream unionism, had been persuaded to say Yes to a package which could bring their sworn enemies into the very government of Northern Ireland.

Amazingly, and by a decisive margin, this deeply conservative party - instinctively suspicious of change, and proud of it - bought change on a scale for which its leadership had barely prepared it. Still more strikingly, for all the depths of bitterness, grief and sorrow nurtured in its ranks over the long years of the IRA campaign, the party bought the possibility that its enemies, too, might have changed or be capable of change.

Sure, for some, there was a tactical calculation that a triumph for David Trimble would increase the pressure on Sinn Fein, maybe even increasing the chances of a republican rejection of the agreement.

But the agreement was not sold to them on that basis. Yes, David Trimble had to take on board, indeed identify himself with, their concerns. And on television yesterday he was again emphatic that Sinn Fein could not have the benefit of the agreement without accepting the burden it would also impose.

In the months ahead he can be expected to remain adamant that, if former paramilitaries are to share in a new administration, they will have to shape and evince a consistent and convincing commitment to purely peaceful means.

Even as Sinn Fein deliberates, Mr Blair and Mr Ahern have pointed to the decommissioning component set out in the agreement, and the mechanisms available to exclude office-holders who do not abide by the democratic rules. Mr Trimble, now clearly First Minister in waiting, is beginning to savour the power and influence he can bring to bear to ensure compliance by those who would sit around the Executive table with him.

But from the Trimble platform on Saturday there was no trickery on this fundamental issue, no attempt to conceal the fact that the settlement proposed is fully inclusive of all those buying in on the same terms and conditions.

Mr Trimble's opponents believe it simply will not happen; that the IRA will not commit to decommissioning in any shape or form; and that Mr Trimble and Mr Adams will not ever get to sit around that cabinet table.

Sources close to Mr Jeffrey Donaldson believe the Lagan Valley MP has positioned himself perfectly for the day "when the wheels fall off this thing". But the view inside the Trimble camp is that Mr Donald son has emerged "the real loser in all this".

Mr Donaldson appears relaxed, perhaps comforting himself (like James Molyneaux before him) in "the long view". But the view of his colleagues at the coal face yesterday was that Mr Donaldson could find life somewhat lonely in the months ahead.

Having failed to drive the sword home on Saturday (although his was rated the most impressive of all the anti-agreement speeches) he apparently will not join William Ross and William Thompson alongside the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney in the No campaign.

And, at least for the moment, the disposition of those who stayed loyal to Mr Trimble is that the assorted "young turks" who abandoned ship should not be swiftly or lightly forgiven.

Mr Trimble's personal disposition may be more generous. He has been hurt and shocked by the opposition to him from so many of the younger men and women he had moved into positions of prominence, often at the expense of resentful members of his parliamentary party. The function of his office, anyway, is to build bridges and heal internal divisions.

But the speed and ease with which that can be done will rest much on the dispositions the anti-agreement Ulster Unionists make in relation to the referendum and Assembly election campaigns.

Will they campaign against the now-settled will of the Ulster Unionist Council? Will the party executive permit them to do so and remain within the party? Will individual constituency parties be able to select candidates opposed to the established party line? Even assuming they have the numbers to do so, is that the intention of the anti-agreement MPs, Mr Donaldson, the Rev Martin Smyth, Mr Roy Beggs, Mr Clifford Forsythe, Mr Ross and Mr Thompson?

What is clear at this stage is that it is they who are under pressure as a result of Saturday's vote. Given the size of the margin, the anti-agreement bloc would need to be concentrated in a handful of key constituencies to significantly affect the Ulster Unionist line-up for the Assembly election; and to enhance the possibility that, in combination with the DUP and the UKUP, they would emerge as the largest unionist grouping in the Assembly.

However, there are clear signs of division within the East Derry Association for one. And among the dissident MPs there is an evident reluctance to join Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney on the campaign trail.

Mr Donaldson says he will not do so. The Rev Martin Smyth, who for all his misgivings is a party man at heart, may be similarly reluctant.

Lord Molyneaux has so far resisted considerable pressure to take a public stand against his successor.

Contrary to some of the more enthusiastic reports at the weekend, nothing is set in stone as a result of the UUC decision.

Sinn Fein has still to commit to the agreement and a Yes vote.

The public unionist debate is barely a week old. Only a fool would ignore Dr Paisley's formidable vote-winning record, or discount Mr McCartney's intellectual appeal to many unionists. And the possible political fallout of violence doubtless already planned is impossible to calculate. Mr Trimble knows he can take nothing for granted at any stage in this process. But at this stage the momentum is unquestionably with him.