The Taoiseach has delivered on his promise to call an abortion referendum and is politically in the clear whatever the outcome, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent.
Just 48 hours after the abortion referendum result is announced, the Taoiseach will address his party's pre-election ardfheis in Dublin. A victory would add to pre-election confidence and the mood of the occasion. A defeat would be a dampener, but not a disaster.
This is because delivering on the referendum, whatever the outcome, allows him point out that he has been a man of his word on this issue. Sources close to him say Mr Ahern will not stand back from the campaign, but will be prominent among those calling for a Yes vote. The pro-life lobby can have no complaint against him if it fails: he will have given them their long-desired referendum and campaigned for it.
Setting the date yesterday, despite any appeal by the TCD students, makes the message clear: the Taoiseach has delivered.
For the PDs, taking a stand for the liberal position on abortion would have been a nuclear option. The Taoiseach was so determined to fulfil his promise that to go against him would have threatened to break up the Government.
And with polls giving the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition a real prospect of re-election to government, why break up the partnership in such a way that it would be difficult to put it together again? The timing of the release of the negative stadium report gave the PDs a major triumph on the eve of the Taoiseach's victory on abortion. Of course both sides deny any cynical trade-off between abortion and the stadium.
As the campaign gets under way, the PDs will sit on the sidelines. The Tánaiste, Ms Harney, will not be calling on party members or supporters to vote in any particular way, according to a spokesman, but will say in media interviews that she personally supports the proposal.
Fine Gael, too, will adopt a low-key campaign approach, confining itself largely to media appearances where the party leader and senior spokesmen and women will urge a No vote.
But individual deputies and senators will be free to speak as they wish in their constituencies, and a number, notably John Bruton, are likely to deliver dignified explanations as to why they support the Government proposal.
There will be no such caution from the Labour Party.
With Fine Gael not speaking with one voice and the PDs constrained by political reality from appealing to its liberal, middle-class constituency, Labour has earmarked €70,000 for a campaign staking its claim to the liberal ground.
Their campaign committee, chaired by health spokeswoman Ms Liz McManus, will produce posters, billboard advertisements and leaflets, and they will hold several press conferences to urge a No vote.
But sources in all parties are doubtful over whether yet another attempt to change the Constitution on abortion will engage the voters.