South Antrim.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND:Another of the more unionist of the 18 Northern Ireland constituencies, South Antrim returned two DUP, two UUP, one Alliance and one SDLP as its six MLAs at the last Assembly election in 2003. Next door to the Rev Ian Paisley's North Antrim constituency, it will be fascinating to see whether the DUP vote will hold on March 7th, not least because of the growing perception that the party is about to share power with Sinn Féin but also by the presence in South Antrim of that very incarnation of resistance to such power sharing - the UKUP's Robert McCartney. Equally interesting will be to see whether DUP MP William McCrea's own vote holds up. At the 2005 Westminster election he received 14,507 votes, taking the seat from the UUP's David Burnside.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND:The SDLP's Thomas Bruns seems on course to hold his seat. Transfers from party colleague Noreen McClelland should help ensure that happens, which seems the real reason the party has fielded two candidates in South Antrim. There have been suggestions that Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin's campaign here lacks the dynamism and numbers that were such a feature of those mounted by Martin Meehan in South Antrim. Meehan attracted a lot of campaign workers from nearby Belfast. Some say McLaughlin is relying more on his profile than the trudge of canvass. Whatever, it is believed he will feature in a tight fight for the last seat, possibly winning on SDLP transfers.
WILD CARDS:There are 14 candidates competing for six seats in this constituency which includes the best known possible wild card of this election - Robert McCartney (UKUP). But he is unlikely to make it as, again and again, and as with disillusioned Sinn Féin supporters, it seems more likely most DUP supporters disillusioned with their party's direction will stay at home rather than vote for someone else.
David Burnside (UUP)7066 (18.9%)
Wilson Clyde (DUP)5131 (13.7%)
Paul Girvan (DUP)4820 (12.9%)
David Ford (Alliance)3393 (9.1%)
Jim Wilson (UUP)3135 (8.4%)
Thomas Burns (SDLP)2732 (7.3%)
Quota 15 per cent