Coalition leaders favour holding general election next October

THE three Coalition leaders have already discussed the prospect of holding the general election in October of next year.

The Irish Times has confirmed that the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, expressed his preference for an October election at recent meetings with the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, and the Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa.

The Labour Party and Democratic Left leaders were "amenable" to an October election according to informed sources.

The continued necessity for cohesion among the three parties in Government was also discussed by the leaders. It is also understood they reached an understanding that the three parties would stick together until the election was called. There would be no "jumping ship" before that date.

The confirmation that the three Coalition leaders are considering waiting until the eleventh hour before calling the election will come as some surprise to Government and Opposition TDs.

Although there had been speculation that Mr Spring favoured an autumn election to allow time ford the rebuilding of the Labour Party, most seasoned observers had dismissed the idea on grounds of impracticality.

Under the Constitution and the Electoral Acts, Mr Bruton is obliged to call a general election not later than five years after the first meeting of the 27th Dail. The last general election was held on November 25th, 1992, but the first meeting of that Dail was held on December 14th, 1992.

The holding of an October election would, in theory at least, offer the Government the opportunity to introduce a second Budget next year. The Minister for Finance, Mr Quinn, announced the Government's decision to change the Budget date from January to "late autumn" in 1997.

Overall, however, the setting of an October date for the election would be a risky calculation for the three-party Coalition, at least two of whose leaders hope, at this stage, that they can reach a pact to offer themselves for election as a Government.

By staying in office until the last moment, they would be hostage to whatever fortunes hit the Government next autumn. They would give Opposition, rather than Government TDs a competitive advantage since their official campaign would be conducted, in, effect, all summer.

The downside of such a decision is that the Coalition would be accused of clinging to power and hiding from the people.

But the upside being discussed by Government sources is that it would allow time for what they call "a Bertie factor" to develop. They believe recent opinion polls show that the Fianna Fail leader's popularity has peaked.