What have Dublin's Luas light rail system, the Dublin Transportation Init iative (DTI) and Pacific coral atolls under threat of submergence to do with one another? More than at first meets the eye. Ireland produces only 0.1 per cent of the world's energy-related CO2 emissions, but its per-capita CO2 emissions are at the EU average, and it is a party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The EU is committed to stabilising CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. Ireland, however, in the interests of protecting its economic growth, has set itself the goal of an increase of 20 per cent above 1990 levels. Its emissions grew by 8.5 per cent between 1990 and 1994. By 1995 the increase had reached 10.5 per cent. Germany, in contrast, has undertaken to reduce its CO2 emissions to 10 per cent below 1990 levels by 2000.
The urgency of the issue depends on the reality of global warming. Despite the lobbying efforts of "rogue scientists" in the pay of oil, coal and motor manufacturing interests, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last year formally declared "there is now a discernible effect of human activity on the global climate".
We can expect average global temperatures to rise by at least 20C by 2100. Over the past 100 years, according to the IPCC, global mean surface air temperatures have increased by 0.3C to 0.6C, while global sea levels have risen by 10 cm to 25 cm. Though it is impossible to predict exactly what the effects will be, such fluctuation is unprecedented in the 10,000 years since the last ice age. A worldwide increase in storms, droughts, floods and sea-level rises of 20 cm by 2030 and up to 60 cm by 2100 are being predicted.
This would threaten the very existence of many low-lying small island states, some of which have already experienced king tides, storm surges and an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones.
The resulting inundation of coastal regions could produce as many as 150 million refugees. Coral polyps, living organisms whose shells form the reefs and atolls that make the Pacific an area of spectacular natural beauty, are already dying as a result of water temperatures rising above the 28C mean they need in order to survive, leading to coral bleaching throughout Polynesia.
But as UN delegates might remark in unguarded moments between official sessions, "Who cares about coral reefs?" Why should the fate of a few million people living on insignificant specks in the vast Pacific be a brake on economic growth and technological progress? The cynicism implicit in such questions reveals the utilitarian ethic that all too often determines decisionmaking by the world's power brokers.
The Pacific and its islands are not only unbelievably rich in natural species, they are also home to a greater variety of human cultures and language groups than anywhere else in the world. Though only 0.1 per cent of the world's surface area, coral reefs are responsible for 10 per cent of the world's fish catch.
An unusually high proportion of the languages spoken on earth are spoken in the south-west Pacific. In Melanesia alone, which has a total population of 4,550,000, there are 105 languages spoken in Vanuatu, 75 in the Solomon Islands, and over 800 in Papua New Guinea. Each of these language groups represents a distinctive culture.
The Pacific is a test case for an ethic based on the value intrinsic in nature itself, non-human as well as human - on care for life rather than rights of possession.
So what has all this got to do with Luas? The underground versus overground debate is seen in a different perspective once the projected effects of climate change are grasped. While Ireland is permitting itself to overshoot the EU CO 2 reduction target, itself woefully inadequate, by 20 per cent, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has been calling for a cut in CO 2 emissions to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2000 (known since 1988 as the Toronto Target).
When the catastrophic effects of climate change are really faced, such as the ever more frequently occurring El Nino phenomenon, caused by rising Pacific water temperatures, it becomes apparent how drastic the countermeasures will have to be.
Every significant amelioration of the greenhouse effect, no matter how costly to Western and Asian economies accustomed to steady growth and increasing prosperity, becomes crucial.
Yet Pacific rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Canada and the United States still opposed the AOSIS protocol at the Berlin Climate Summit in 1995, which is not surprising when one learns that transnational corporations are estimated to be responsible for about 50 per cent of greenhouse gases.
The weather conditions which produced the floods of the century in central Europe this summer were equivalent to those which cause monsoons in Asia. Countries such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, which normally enjoy high tropical rainfall, are currently in the grip of severe drought, leading to out-of-control forest fires in the former and threatened famine due to crop failure in the latter.
The global insurance industry has identified a 40-fold increase in damages due to hurricanes and other weather extremes over the last 25 years. Of the 25 largest insured catastrophes in the United States, 21 have happened in the last 10 years, and 16 of these involved the effects of wind and water.
No wonder more and more international bodies, such as the World Council of Churches, are adopting the "precautionary principle" as the ethical basis of their approach to global warming: expect the worst and act accordingly if our calculations are out. It is more morally responsible to err on the side of caution when the survival of species and peoples is at stake.
Ireland, too, is a small island state. As a resident of Booterstown, living within sight of the sea, I sometimes wonder what would happen if the sea level rose by one metre. No more walks on Dun Laoghaire pier. Every storm, perhaps every high tide, would flood the DART line and close Rock Road. By then, though, Luas would be running further inland. If they ever get around to it, that is.
Dr John May teaches Inter- faith Dialogue and Ethics at the Irish School of Ecumenics in Dublin.