Precarious US-China relations headed into further trouble today with reports the Bush administration may let Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian meet congressmen during a stopover in the United States.
On top of a spy plane incident, the biggest US arms package for Taiwan in a decade, Washington's decision to grant a visa to former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, blunt remarks by President George W. Bush on defending Taiwan and China's detention of US residents on spy charges, the reports added to a sense that events were piling up perilously.
Starting with the April 1 spy plane incident, both Mr Bush and Chinese President Jiang Zemin have been careful to put immediate conflicts in perspective and stress the wider relationship, including trade which earned China an 84 billion dollar surplus with the United States last year, according to US figures.
China's response to what it views as a growing list of provocations has been fairly measured, although the Foreign Ministry warned Washington last night it was heading down a dangerous road .
A senior US administration official responded by saying Mr Bush was working to keep the relationship productive .
Analysts note that every US administration since Jimmy Carter in the 1970s has got off to a rocky start with China.
Yet some experts believe China's public restraint will last only as long as it takes for a decision on a more forceful response to grind through the Chinese policy-making system.
You have to think that this is the calm before the storm and there's something serious brewing in terms of policy statements, said one Beijing-based Western diplomat.