Ceasefire hinges on arms handover issue

THE demand for defacto decommissioning of weapons and explosives is understood to be the chief obstacle to the reinstatement …

THE demand for defacto decommissioning of weapons and explosives is understood to be the chief obstacle to the reinstatement of an IRA ceasefire.

The central role of Mr George Mitchell in all party negotiations is also seen within the republican movement as critical to the reestablishment of a cessation, since the presence of the United States as a "guarantor" is thought to be an indispensable aspect of the talks process.

Monday night's statement from a senior IRA source saying that the prospects of an early ceasefire were "extremely remote" was designed to exert maximum pressure on yesterday's meeting between British and Irish ministers in London as they searched a formula to permit "inclusive" all party negotiations to begin next week.

The present lull in IRA activity is also seen as a tactical pause to maximise Sinn Fein's political strength.

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Although the prospect of a reinstatement of the IRA ceasefire in advance of next week's talks at Stormont appears unlikely, it is believed one will be called at a later stage.

The increase in the Sinn Fein vote to over 15 per cent in last week's elections enhances the prospects of such a ceasefire since a return to a full scale campaign would effectively demolish the political gains.

However, when it will happen depends on whether a "package" one that includes no practical decommissioning in advance of serious political progress and the involvement of the US administration as a key player can be agreed.

Such a package would go much of the way towards securing a fresh ceasefire, although it is now widely believed among republicans that it may not happen in the lifetime of the present British government.

They also believe no advance will be made in securing loyalist agreement to hand over guns at an early stage of talks that proceed without Sinn Fein.