THE OUTCOME of a potentially vital Italian referendum hung in the balance last night as the initial voter turnout suggested that the important quorum of 50 per cent plus one might well be reached.
The 47.3 million electorate have been asked to vote for or against (1) a future nuclear energy programme (2) the privatisation of water resources and (3) the controversial legitimate impediment legislation which, critics claim, effectively guarantees prime minister Silvio Berlusconi immunity from prosecution.
For the referendum results to have constitutional validity, 50 per cent plus one of the electorate must turn out to vote on the three issues. Referendum promoters were expressing cautious optimism yesterday, following an analysis of the early voting trends which showed that, by midday, more than 11 per cent of the electorate had voted, making it the third highest midday turnout.
Analysis of the last 30 years of referendums indicates that whenever the Sunday midday turnout has registered higher than 10 per cent, then the final quorum has been reached. Furthermore, by 7pm, 30 per cent of the electorate had voted.
It is no secret that Mr Berlusconi and his People of Freedom party would dearly like to see this referendum fail. Although the PDL has left its supporters “freedom of conscience” on how or whether they should vote, Mr Berlusconi made his own position clear last Friday when he said he would not be voting. Other senior centre-right figures, including Northern League leader Umberto Bossi, have also said that they will not be voting.
In contrast, a broad swathe of forces, ranging from anti-nuclear campaigners to the Greens and on to opposition parties, the Democratic Party and the Italy of Values have campaigned hard to achieve the quorum. Prior to the vote, PD leader Pierluigi Bersani said he sensed that the quorum was “almost there”. Writing on his Facebook page yesterday, Mr Bersani sounded quietly optimistic, saying he had to queue to vote.
Intriguingly, several senior centre-right figures, including the mayor of Rome, Gianni Alemano, the president of the Region of Lazio, Renata Polverini, and the president of the Veneto region, Luca Zaia, all ignored Mr Berlusconi’s example and voted. Former minister of agriculture Zaia said afterwards he voted Yes to the abrogation of all three measures.
In what is a two-day vote, polling stations remain open until 3pm today, with the earliest results available shortly afterwards.