Arrest made with one eye focused on EU membership

Serbia’s leaders are hoping for EU candidate status or they may see their support dwindle

THE CAPTURE of Ratko Mladic has failed to trigger a storm of nationalist protest in Serbia, but may yet help undo the country’s pro-western leaders unless they can reap major dividends from the long-awaited arrest.

Belgrade’s failure to find Mladic 16 years after his indictment for alleged genocide during Bosnia’s 1992-1995 war was the biggest obstacle to Serbia’s bid for European Union membership, so President Boris Tadic and his allies now hope to be swiftly rewarded with official candidate status.

In the days before Mladic was seized, Serb media reports suggested that prosecutors at the United Nations war crimes court at The Hague were preparing a scathing report on Belgrade’s failure to provide full co-operation – which would have further damaged the country’s EU accession prospects and the pro-western government’s hopes of re-election next year.

“It [the arrest] was motivated by domestic political concerns and the realisation that if [Tadic’s party] even has a chance in the election, it is going to have to do it with a substantial pat on the back and approvals and hugs from the EU to make it happen,” says one regional diplomat.

The liberals allied to Tadic will be encouraged by the relatively low-key public response to Mladic’s arrest.

The ultra-nationalist Radical Party called for a huge protest in Belgrade on Sunday, but it attracted only about 10,000 people and was much less violent than previous rallies.

Supporters of Mladic accused Tadic and the government of treachery and urged them to resign, but experts said the protest had little resonance

with a public that is demoralised by economic problems and international isolation.

That will give them hope of winning another term in office at next year’s general election, but only if Tadic and his government can show that the European Union rewards them for taking tough steps like arresting Mladic, who for a vocal minority of the Serbian population is still a national hero.

“If it does reflect on the country’s progress toward the EU, it will reflect on Tadic’s ratings,” analyst Marko Blagojevic says.

“If not, people might think that it was all in vain, which may further boost an already growing disillusionment with the EU.”

Polls show the liberals trailing behind pro-EU nationalists led by Tomislav Nikolic, who has become more moderate as the majority of Serbs have sought to escape the shadow of the Milosevic era.