Ahern vulnerable for first time since '97 election

The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll bring the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, on to the political artillery range for …

The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll bring the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, on to the political artillery range for the first time since the last general election.

From the record-breaking heights of 84 per cent in the wake of the Belfast Agreement a year ago, he is now a normal leader, with a popularity rating of 58 per cent. His standing falls within the ball park of the leaders of the other parties.

The 12 percentage-point drop in the Taoiseach's rating, as he grappled with the Sheedy, passports-for-sale and continuing Burke controversies since February, is not the only bad news for the main Government party in the poll.

The level of support for Fianna Fail has decreased by two percentage points, from 48 per cent to 46 per cent, in the last three months. That is the lowest support for the party since the 1997 election.

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Corresponding with the drop in the popularity of the Taoiseach and Fianna Fail, today's poll also shows the minority Coalition is recording its lowest satisfaction level, 51 per cent, since it came to office.

Apart from the dramatic blow to Fianna Fail, there are several indicators of shifting political attitudes. For the second poll in a row after their leadership has taken a tough public stance on their partner's behaviour, the Progressive Democrats have increased their support.

The current rating of 5 per cent, up one percentage point since February, is the party's highest since mid-1997.

Though the Tanaiste and PD leader, Ms Harney, has dropped one percentage point, her popularity, 63 per cent, has surpassed that of the Taoiseach for the first time in Government.

Having put up a steady performance on the constitutional and political complexities of the Philip Sheedy case, John Bruton and the Fine Gael party fail, once again, to reap reward from the electorate.

Both the leader and the party are recording a one percentage point drop in their ratings - 46 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively - at a time of great opportunity for the Opposition.

Some two weeks after their first annual conference since the merger with Democratic Left, Mr Ruairi Quinn and the Labour Party are beginning to show signs of improved ratings in the poll.

The leader, Mr Quinn, maintains his popularity level of 55 per cent while the party increases its share of the vote to 15 per cent, the highest since the general election.

It still has some way to go, however, to the 19.31 per cent first-preference vote recorded in 1997.

There are several nuggets in the small print of the poll which will give party strategists food for thought as the European and local election campaigns are launched in coming days.

With a Dublin Taoiseach, the most worrying feature of the poll for Fianna Fail is that the party's support has dropped from 46 per cent to 41 per cent in Dublin in the past three months.

It has declined also in Connacht/Ulster, from 54 per cent to 47 per cent, in the same period.

The party's core vote nationally stands at 38 per cent, the lowest since the last general election.

The Labour Party's support in Dublin has shown a dramatic increase to 22 per cent, up 7 percentage points in three months. It has passed out Fine Gael - 17 per cent, down one point - as the second-biggest party in Dublin. Both Fine Gael and Labour hold the same share, 19 per cent, of the urban vote.

The PDs have also increased their share of the vote in Dublin. While the national share stands at 5 per cent, their support in Dublin has risen to 7 per cent, up 2 points in three months.

The damage which Bertie Ahern inflicted upon himself is evident from the Sheedy questions in the poll.

Some 71 per cent of voters, among them 62 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, are dissatisfied with the way the Government handled the controversy.

Almost eight in 10 voters (79 per cent) believe they have not been fully informed of what happened in the Sheedy case, among them an overwhelming majority of 74 per cent of Fianna Fail voters.

Despite the drop in ratings for the Taoiseach, the Government and Fianna Fail, however, a slight majority of voters, 55 per cent, believe that the Coalition will survive until the end of the year.

This figure is distorted by the 67 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters who hold this view.

Notwithstanding this finding, however, Mr Ahern could not have picked a worse platform for the launch of important local and European elections on June 11th.

With all parties seeking to build support in the local - rather than the more personality-dominated European - elections, the net effect of this poll is that the pitch has been levelled between them. For the first time since he became Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern is assailable.

This judgment was reached by many of his Fianna Fail colleagues during the debate on his intervention in the Sheedy case last week.