Adams walk-over as SF votes a double Yes

Nobody said it was going to be hard. The problem facing Sinn Fein was to try not to make it look too easy

Nobody said it was going to be hard. The problem facing Sinn Fein was to try not to make it look too easy. The leadership got its vote. There were so few opposed to taking seats in the northern assembly that it was like looking for a needle in a haystack.

There seemed to be slightly more in opposition to the strategy of a Yes vote in both referendums. But there was no sign of any walkout. If any delegates did in fact leave, they slunk rather than stormed.

The demeanour of Mr Gerry Adams was worth observing. If he felt any temptation to break into a broad smile at the famous victory, he successfully resisted it. His expression was sombre and in his concluding speech he went out of his way to console the opponents of change. Perhaps he was thinking of the much larger number of "antis" who were not in the hall but would still consider themselves part of the republican movement.

Everyone knew the vote was going to go the leadership's way. If there was any prospect of substantial opposition, it would have melted with the arrival of the Balcombe Street Four. This was an event of high emotion. There were embraces, a standing ovation, fists shaken in the air and, quietly in the background, a few very hard men wiping away a tear.

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One had seen photographs of this group - police pictures in the newspapers, other "snaps" in Sinn Fein publications - but they had been in prison for so long, one wondered if they really existed. Few people in the modern era claiming the label of "political prisoner" have served so much time: they are now in the 24th year of their sentences. Mr Adams compared them to Nelson Mandela.

Other prisoners also appeared, spoke from the platform and mixed in the crowd, laughing and joking and shaking hands. It was uncannily like dead people come to life: these were the subversives from beyond the Pale who were locked up and the key thrown away. Now, much to the annoyance of the unionist community, they were almost on the point of release, some of them still young, others with half a lifetime spent behind bars.

The ardfheis was jam-packed with delegates, visitors and observers. The Taoiseach's adviser, Dr Martin Mansergh, could be seen listening to the speeches with his usual thoughtful demeanour. A few years ago, it was difficult to persuade some journalists to treat this gathering as a serious political event: now you could hardly get a seat in the area reserved for the media.

All week the media were full of reports that republican dissidents had organised into an "IRA Nua". Nobody doubts that even a handful of paramilitaries can cause mayhem if they "get lucky" but mainstream republicans and independent observers are still rejecting suggestions that the new organisation has attracted substantial numbers.

The point has been made that the Provisionals were a mere handful at the start of the Troubles. Their growth was amply assisted by major political and security disasters such as Internment, Bloody Sunday and the policy moves which provoked the HBlock hunger strikes. Mao Zedong said a guerrilla moved among the people like a fish in the water, and that succession of political misjudgments guaranteed the Provisionals a support base for their activities among northern nationalists. For the new IRA to succeed the London and Dublin administrations will have to oblige with a similar series of mistakes. Already the dissidents have their first martyr with the young man, Ronan Mac Lochlainn, shot dead at Ashford, Co Wicklow.

Although it is probably not a comparison its members would welcome, there are similarities between the new Sinn Fein and the old, pre-mohair suited Fianna Fail. In setting up Fianna Fail, we are told that units of the IRA were converted into party branches. Likewise, the Provisionals have become more and more politicised to the point where eventually Mr Adams may be able to oblige Mr David Trimble by confirming that, yes, the war is finally over.

Will Sinn Fein end up like Fianna Fail, strong in one jurisdiction but unable to make progress on the issue of national unity? That's not how senior party members see it. They claim their role in the new northern assembly will be "subversive"; that they are a dynamic force in politics, north and south; that they have already brought about massive political change through the peace process, constructing a nationalist consensus that even spans the Atlantic, and bringing about the Belfast Agreement which, though flawed, nevertheless opens the door to an eventual United Ireland.

The critics and the cynics say that an ageing, war-weary movement has come to terms with reality and settled for political advances within Northern Ireland while accepting that the Border is here to stay.

The truth of the matter is that it's still all to play for. Each concession boasted by the unionists in the agreement can be matched with a gain claimed by nationalists. The unionist veto has been secured but the link with the Crown has been weakened.

However, the challenge for Sinn Fein is now to persuade a deeply suspicious unionist community of its peaceful intentions. Mr Adams attempted, in his concluding remarks, to reassure unionists that when Sinn Fein spoke of ending the British presence it did not mean driving the Protestants into the sea. But as long as the IRA exists and refuses to hand over its weapons, most unionists will remain sceptical at best. Whatever the implications of yesterday's decisions for Sinn Fein's long-term goal of Irish unity, it certainly means the party will be a formidable force in the assembly elections planned for the end of June. Mr Adams was at pains to stress that he did not expect to pass out the SDLP this time, but observers believe Sinn Fein could increase its share of the overall vote to about 18 per cent. Since nationalists have apparently been politically energised by the peace process, it is considered likely the SDLP vote will also increase. Sinn Fein claims it is bringing out nationalists who never voted before.

Although some elements in the party were clearly tempted by the option of voting Yes to the agreement in the North and No in the Republic, this would have been seen as a politically immature stance internationally. Several delegates suggested that gains could be made in the Republic by taking a stance against changing Articles 2 and 3 but that would have been seen in many quarters as an attempt to have your cake and eat it. Sinn Fein has gone from being a small fringe party banned from the media and execrated by the political establishment to a situation where its leaders have ready access to the chancelleries of the world. It's heady stuff and the experience has been unnerving and confusing at times for party supporters. One delegate said plaintively that the document agreed on Good Friday "takes away the main basis of my republican beliefs" but he still pledged to continue working within the party. Whatever other political leaders think of Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness, they must envy them the loyalty of their followers.