Adams silent, but odds on he was not too impressed

THE odds are that Mr Gerry Adams was not amused as he watched events at Aintree on Saturday, a republican activist in west Belfast…

THE odds are that Mr Gerry Adams was not amused as he watched events at Aintree on Saturday, a republican activist in west Belfast said hours after the Grand National was cancelled.

The Sinn Fein president was probably sitting with his head in his hands thinking of angry nationalist racing fans across the North who would no longer be receptive to voting Sinn Fein in next month's Westminster election, the source said.

The source did not think that the warnings were the work of dissidents determined to mess up the peace process. But he claimed the IRA and Sinn Fein leadership would be angry at the English unit's choice of target.

The hoaxes would not lose Sinn Fein votes among its hard core supporters but they could alienate people who normally voted SDLP, but might have considered switching to Sinn Fein.

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"We are not talking about tens of thousands of votes here," he said. "But a few hundred votes in Mid Ulster or West Tyrone could be the difference between victory and defeat for Sinn Fein.

"People really love a gamble and horse racing in rural areas. Many will be very angry that the Grand National had to be abandoned. Grassroots republicans might moan but they will forget about it in a few days.

"But less politicised nationalists who are thinking of changing their vote from the SDLP to Sinn Fein might well think again. They will not be able to understand why a peaceful, happy family occasion was disrupted."

The source claimed that the head of the IRA's operation in England would be "rapped on the knuckles" for the incident. "The Army Council will not be impressed," he said. "The IRA has been made to look like a bunch of billy fanatic."

The IRA's operation in England is controlled by the Southern Command but the need for stringent security has meant that it has considerable autonomy.

The Southern Command dictates the tactics that the England Department adopts - whether it embarks on an assassination campaign of VIPs or bombs British military bases, for example: But the England Department has traditionally been able to choose its own targets from within those guidelines and Dublin would not have advance knowledge of their precise identity.

"The England Department has a list of targets it can't attack without clearance," said a source. "That would include targeting a member of the Royal Family or placing a no warning bomb outside a football match. But apart from those exceptions, it has a pretty free rope."

The IRA campaign in England in recent weeks has focused on bomb warnings. This suits Sinn Fein's political strategy in the run up to the election - they cause chaos and ensure publicity but do not risk civilian lives.

The source said that the IRA unit which had carried out the Aintree scare had been implementing this tactic but had not thought lout the full consequences of targeting the Grand National.

Mr Adams did not comment on the bomb threat over the weekend, but in a bland statement, an unnamed Sinn Fein spokesman said: "If we are to create the conditions in which all armed actions by all armed groups are to be brought to an end, there is a need to build a credible process of inclusive negotiations."

The SDLP was quick to spot its rival's weakness. The party's candidate in the marginal West Tyrone seat, Mr Joe Byrne, said: "The SDLP are not afraid to run in any race. It would appear, however, that the republican movement prefer to botch races rather than face their opponents on the track."