The costs of differing perspectives on valuing cars

Given that valuing cars is not an exact science, it was to be expected that our recently featured whole life cost analysis, in…

Given that valuing cars is not an exact science, it was to be expected that our recently featured whole life cost analysis, in which we looked at how specialists in a major leasing company value cars after three years, would cause some differences of opinion - if not controversy.

In the case of executive cars, Volvo had a bone or two to pick with the analysis by Merrion Fleet personnel of the running costs and residual value of its S60 two-litre petrol model. We quoted a total of €7,548.62 for the total service costs for the car over three years, and David Baddeley, managing director of Volvo Cars Ireland, quite rightly picked us up on this.

A typographical error meant the figure seemed far higher than it was - it should have been €5,234,39. We are happy to correct the error.

Merrion's sales director David Wilkinson holds his hands up for the mistake on average fuel consumption. Merrion quoted 6.6 litres per 100 kilometres when the figure should have been 8.9.

READ MORE

However, both Mr Baddely and Mr Wilkinson still take quite opposing views when it comes to the final valuation of the S60 after three years.

Mr Baddeley says: "I appreciate the residual value is a subjective issue, but as depreciation makes up 70 per cent of the cost per kilometre, it is a critical one. As we have no accurate published trade guide in Ireland I did a bit of research into this using Carzone.ie.

"Now I appreciate this is not particularly scientific, but it is as good as we have got. What I did was take at random 6 x BMW 318i SE and 6 x Volvo S60 2.0T advertised on Carzone.ie.

"This is, of course, retail price, and I made no distinction between those being sold by franchised dealers and those not - it was six cars for each model at random of 2004 production year, and as near to the 72,000km/45,000 mile mark as available. What this showed was an average retail price of:

BMW 318i €28,000 (equivalent to 66.5 per cent of original list);

Volvo S60 2.0T €24,860 (equivalent to 64.7 per cent of original list).

"I accept this is only a view, but based on Merrion's view of trade price it does seem unlikely that there is an average profit margin for the retailer in one car of €2,125 and €9,047.50 in the other. In reality retailers tend to look for a similar percentage margin across all used cars between purchase and sale prices.

"I understand that these figures were provided by Merrion Fleet, who may have a particular view based on their experience. However, as ever with leasing companies there can be a big discrepancy between how one company sees the RV of a particular product and another.

"This is particularly the case with models they have relatively little experience of and the Volvo S60 2.0TS (the model quoted) represents less than a quarter of S60s sold that year, and just 2.5 per cent of all Volvos sold in Ireland that year."

Merrion's sales director, David Wilkinson, replies: "The resale figures that we input into our calculations are based on what we expect the vehicle to sell for in three years time from now, rather than what three-year-old versions are selling for today. The Volvo S60 is the oldest model on this list. I think it was launched in October 2000, which means that there is likely to be a new model launched over the next 2 years.

"It is our view that the current model will appear extremely old in three years time, and that resale figures will reflect this. The residual values on all models decrease as the model comes close to the end of its life cycle, and then increase again when a new model is launched. I think it is just unfortunate that this exercise was done when the S60 is at this stage of its lifecycle.

"We base our residuals on a number of factors including sale results, trade opinions and also retail outlet opinions.

"In relation to carzone.ie, I do not feel that this form of website is a realistic guide to second-hand values, as it details what the seller is asking for the vehicle, rather than what the vehicle is sold for."