Demand still healthy as market cools down

Roderick Downer - Colliers Jackson Stops

Roderick Downer - Colliers Jackson Stops

We have been a bit unlucky due to a combination of the collapse of the NASDAQ index which coincided with the foot and mouth scare - both of which affected confidence.

The banks have become strict - it is very difficult to borrow money at the moment which is having a restrictive effect on the market. But with all this, the OECD is still forecasting Irish economic growth of 6 to 8 per cent this year, which is massive. The inflation and escalation activity of the market has been almost out of control so this cooling off really isn't a bad thing.

As far as the US economic slowdown and the impact on high tech companies here is concerned, I don't believe things are all that bad. Microsoft is taking an additional 180,000 sq ft of space in the Atrium office development in Sandyford and Cisco has recently reported good results.

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There is massive demand for city centre offices and not much supply. People are saying that retail demand is high but supply is limited. I'd say both are limited partly because of the lack of new schemes coming on stream. The shopping centre at Dundrum will be the next.

Pat Gunne - Insignia Richard Ellis Gunne

If you look at the Jones Lang La Salle index or the Society of Chartered Surveyors IPD index, the first quarter of the year is always traditionally slow in terms of total returns. There is absolutely no doubt that the market has cooled off somewhat, especially when compared to this time last year. This is beneficial for the overall market. If it kept going at the same level as the last three years, the market would have overheated, but we still think that total returns for property will be in the region of 10 to 15 per cent .

The slowdown is evident across the board. The biggest barometer is tenant demand which is a lot slower than last year but still healthy. Before, we were working off a doubled amount of demand for the amount of supply. There was a 1.8 million sq ft take-up of office space last year. We think it will be the same this year but there is more supply, around 2.7 million sq ft - so rental growth will be more modest.

The suburban office rental market is potentially the biggest loser as it has a fair chunk of supply. The schemes that will fare best are those that are well located with good transport links, good shopping facilities and car-parks.

Liam Lenehan - Hamilton Osborne King

Overall, things have settled down which is not a surprise. At the beginning of the year, most agents expected returns in the region of 10 to 15 per cent rather than the 20 to 30 per cent of previous years and the returns for the first quarter of this year bear this out.

The office rental levels are increasing in the city centre but have probably settled in the suburbs although that depends on the individual location - you need to look at the different submarkets. Retail rents are still growing and industrial rents are pretty stable. Property yields have probably stabilised and because interest rates are coming down, property is fundable.

In terms of lending, the banks have no problem when it comes to investment property. They aren't tightening their criteria other than in the case of speculative developments unless the developer has a long track record and is well secured in terms of existing properties and sites.

As far as the slowdown of the US economy is concerned there have been some high profile cases where tenants aren't going ahead with plans to lease office space but some like Microsoft have taken extra space. major office developers are in discussion with tenants and a good number of those are domestic as opposed to international dot com companies.

John Bruder - Treasury Holdings

After many years of dramatic growth there has been gathering evidence in both the construction and property industries of a slowdown over the last six months, but particularly since the beginning of this year. But despite this, growth continues apace - but at a more modest rate than that of the last couple of years which is to be welcomed. That high level of growth would become unsustainable and destabilising.

There is no doubt if you speak to estate agents in the market, particularly in respect of office space and industrial-type space needed for high tech business, that there has been a reduction in the level of new enquiries. Baltimore Industries signed for a number of buildings in Parkgate Street but now don't require them and the leases are on the market before anybody even moved in. This is a pretty good barometer of the impact of the slowdown on the office market. While it continues there will inevitably be lean pickings for that category of occupant.

But while high tech industry has been an important occupant over the last couple of years, it hasn't been the most important. Financial services and local professional firms like accountants and solicitors, account for a very high level of the demand. The US economic slowdown has had an impact but it has not been a disaster.

Lena Mulligan - Lisney

The pace of growth has levelled. If the European Central bank lowers interest rates, it should help to stimulate demand. A lot of investors have been holding off to see what happens. In the last few months the equity market has been all over the place and the foot and mouth scare caused serious concerns but that has calmed somewhat and hopefully we will see the impact of that in the next quarter.

In terms of the US economic slowdown, I don't think we have seen the real impact yet. I think generally the computer and high tech industries in Ireland are fairly sound. It has had some effect in terms of investor confidence in the market - Intel has just put off expanding its premises.

The banks have tightened their belts over the last 12 months. If interest rates are lowered, it will stimulate demand back to the market.

Institutions haven't been that active this quarter mainly as a result of the fact that the equity market has fallen in value. The institutions would have a certain proportion of equity and a certain amount of property in their portfolios. As equity portfolios have fallen, this would mean from a strategic fund management point of view that portfolios would be heavy with property and as a result they are buying less. If the equity market increases it could rebalance portfolios and hopefully they will become more active in the property market towards the end of this year.