Benchmark yields, rents to be set in strong year

Having accurately forecast the exceptional growth during 1999, I eagerly look forward to another year of strong performance

Having accurately forecast the exceptional growth during 1999, I eagerly look forward to another year of strong performance. Confidence is in abundance and all the key elements of the economy remain extremely favourable. With only low deposit rates available (at best they are around 3 per cent), property will continue to offer investors very favourable growth and will be an extremely attractive option. With the 20% standardisation of Capital Gains Tax on all disposals, more properties will be freed up, and much of these funds will be available for reinvestment in the market, generating further activity.

I predict new rental levels will be established resulting in new yields being achieved to reflect the ongoing strong rental growth, which I believe will be sustained. For instance, in the office market, where prime rents have surpassed £30 per sq ft (on sizeable takes), the next immediate level I expect to see achieved shortly is in excess £35 per sq ft on first-class buildings in prime Dublin 2 and Dublin 4 areas, where supply will continue to be very limited for the next few years.

Due to the excellent growth prospects and the continued lack of quality opportunities, I expect a yield of 4 per cent or less could be achieved if such third-generation buildings become available during the year.

Out of town schemes will remain popular but will be critically assessed on the basis of location, quality, accessibility, transportation links and the level of amenities provided. Public transport links, such as the LUAS and the DART, will be vital and a high level of staff amenities, such as leisure facilities and creches, will be demanded by occupiers, at a time when retention of staff and attracting new staff will be utmost in employers minds.

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Demand for office space will continue at strong levels, at over one million sq ft per annum, for the next two years or more. Greater emphasis will come from the expansion of existing companies rather than new set-up companies - as was the case over recent years. Office completions will continue to lag some way behind demand.

Regarding the investment market, where demand remains bullish, the market will continue to be tight, with limited opportunity to acquire quality product. Large lot sizes will increasingly be in demand and I expect competition between private and institutional funds will be even keener as the funds aggressively seek to restructure their portfolios. While previously the domain of the institutions, private investors will venture further into pre-funding opportunities in order to get into quality investments.

THERE are indications of an increased supply of secondary investments coming to the market as funds cash in on the buoyant market and are re-structuring to ensure future growth from better quality buildings.

Even though there is likely to be some further edging upwards of interest rates by the European Central Bank, I am confident base rates will remain close to 4 per cent throughout the year - even with the ongoing weakness of the euro. These historically low levels will ensure continued strong property performance.

When looking at the investment market generally, property is still a great option and my strongest "buy tag" would be for prime third-generation offices. Last year saw terrific rental growth in this sector and this is likely to continue.

The retail market is also a good mark, where extremely strong consumer spending in recent times hasn't yet fully translated into rental growth. I believe there is plenty of scope in Dublin's prime retail rents, which remain modest by UK and European standards. Opportunities will be extremely limited and it will undoubtedly remain on every "buy" list.

John Finnegan is managing director of Finnegan Menton.