Scientists now fear that there is little more than five years left to prevent irreversible climate damage and stark changes to the Earth’s weather patterns from global carbon emissions, Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan has warned.
Painting a stark picture of the environmental challenges ahead, Mr Ryan told the Patrick MacGill summer school in Glenties, Co Donegal that humanity was on the brink of disaster. “We’re on the brink of potentially runaway climate change which we couldn’t stop.”
He said climate scientists believe the release of 200 gigatons of extra carbon into the atmosphere will breach climate targets irreversibly, The current rate of release is 37 gigatons a year, he told the conference.
“That would shatter the security for future generations and the ability to live peacefully on the planet,” he said, noting the warnings about “tipping points” facing the Greenland ice sheet or the Amazon.
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However, the Minister, who received a standing ovation, said that renewable energy is now growing at an exponential rate that offers great hope that changes can be made to the world’s energy supplies, especially in poorer countries.
Scientists are offering increasingly blunt warnings that pledges to keep global temperatures below 1.5 degrees must be kept, he said. “They fear that if you go above that the risks of crossing a tipping point increase,” he said.
Pointing to the evidence of the damage already being done, Mr Ryan talked about the impact storms had recently on the energy grid in the United States, depriving nearly two million people of electricity and air-conditioning in Houston when temperatures were in the 30s.
Responding to questions about the opposition to changes, Mr Ryan said: “I hate to tell you, but politics trumps everything. That’s why politics matters.”
However, he was confident that even fossil-fuel producing countries recognise the dangers.
Donald Trump’s election to the US presidency, if that happened, would be “disastrous” for global climate negotiations, Mr Ryan warned. However, he said he believed US federal states and businesses will not want to fall behind in the race to lead on renewable energies. Nor do they want to face the costs of dealing with storms or floods every year, added the Minister.
Everyone is “aware” of the risk posed by Mr Trump and thinking of how his election could be managed.
“The US realises that they are in a race for this industrial revolution,” he said. “If they step out for four years, they will fall behind and it will be disastrous for their economies, not just the country as a whole. So, at a state level, I think, and America is a very strong federal system, they will continue with the work.”
Pointing to the positive changes taking place, he said 85 per cent of power generation investment globally last year was in renewables, even though some of that will be nuclear.
Transport and agriculture will be more difficult to change because the world has spent decades creating a car-dependent world, he said. “It’s very hard to reverse. And it can’t be just making all the cars electric.
“We need to reduce the amount of travelling we’re doing. We need to also switch modes to public transport and walking and cycling at scale. That’s probably politically the most difficult one.”
Pointing to the success of rural bus routes set up during his time in the Department of Transport, he said: “People do want it. Young people across this country, rural Ireland especially, are flocking to the new rural public transport bus routes we’re putting in.
“Farmers more than any of us know that climate change is happening because our weather is turning weird. And the solutions that will help reduce emissions will provide resilience against that,” he said.
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