Carbon emissions at record levels with no sign of decrease - study

Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels – with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, according to the Global Carbon Project science team.

If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50 per cent chance that global warming of 1.5 degrees will be exceeded in nine years, it warns in its latest assessment. The one positive from this year’s “carbon budget” is that it shows the long-term rate of increase in fossil emissions has slowed.

The researchers for the Global Carbon Project are from the University of Exeter; University of East Anglia; Center for International Climate Research; and Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich.

The findings confirm heightened risk of irreversible climate impacts occurring within a decade due to rising temperatures, and worsening by mid-century as overheating continues. They underline the difficult task facing governments at COP27 in Egypt as they attempt over the coming days to agree actions to address the worsening emissions scenario.

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The report projects total global CO2 emissions of 40.6 billion tonnes (GtCO2) in 2022. This is fuelled by fossil CO2 emissions which are projected to rise by 1 per cent compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2 – slightly above the 2019 pre-Covid-19 level. Emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.

Projected emissions from coal and oil are above their 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to total emissions growth. The growth in oil emissions can largely be explained by the delayed rebound of international aviation following Covid-19 pandemic restrictions, it concludes.

The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 100 scientists, examines both carbon sources and sinks. It provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner. It is regarded as the definitive indication of emissions patterns and their implications for carbon budgets.

The 2022 picture among large emitters is mixed: emissions are projected to fall in China (0.9 per cent) and the EU (0.8 per cent), and increase in the US (1.5 per cent) and India (6 per cent), with a 1.7 per cent rise in the rest of the world combined.

Remaining budget

The remaining carbon budget for a 50 per cent likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees has reduced to 380 GtCO2 (exceeded after nine years if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1,230 GtCO2 to limit to 2 degrees (30 years at 2022 emissions levels). These projections are based on current levels of global emissions.

To reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would now require a decrease of about 1.4 GtCO2 each year, comparable to the observed fall in 2020 emissions resulting from Covid-19 lockdowns, it notes.

Land and ocean, which absorb and store carbon, continue to take up about half of the emissions. The ocean and land carbon sinks are still increasing in response to the atmospheric CO2 increase, although climate change reduced this growth by an estimated 4 per cent (ocean sink) and 17 per cent (land sink) over the 2012-2021 decade.

This year’s carbon budget shows the long-term rate of increasing fossil emissions has slowed – a significant positive. The average rise peaked at +3 per cent per year during the 2000s, while growth in the last decade has been about +0.5% per year.

The researchers welcomed the slowdown but said it was “far from the emissions decrease we need”.

“This year we see yet another rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline,” said Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

“There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 will have to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming close to 1.5 degrees. The Global Carbon Budget numbers monitor the progress on climate action and right now we are not seeing the action required.”

Prof Corinne Le Quéré, of the UEA, said: “Our findings reveal turbulence in emissions patterns this year resulting from the pandemic and global energy crises. If governments respond by turbo-charging clean energy investments and planting, not cutting, trees, global emissions could rapidly start to fall.

Highest ever

“We are at a turning point and must not allow world events to distract us from the urgent and sustained need to cut our emissions to stabilise the global climate and reduce cascading risks.”

The Global Carbon Budget report projects that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million in 2022, more than 50 per cent above pre-industrial levels. In a global atlas published with it, Ireland is the 66th biggest emitter in the world (based on 2021 figures) – with total emissions of 38 million tonnes of CO2.

The global projection of 40.6 GtCO2 emissions in 2022 is close to the 40.9 GtCO2 in 2019, which is the highest annual total ever.

Land-use changes, especially deforestation, are a significant source of emissions, accounting for about a tenth of the amount from fossil emissions. Indonesia, Brazil and DR Congo contribute 58 per cent of global land-use-change emissions.

Carbon removal via reforestation or new forests counterbalance half of the deforestation emissions, and the researchers say that stopping deforestation and increasing efforts to restore and expand forests constitutes a large opportunity to reduce emissions and increase removals in forests.