Keeping the Independent TDs happy

Jackie Healy-Rae appears to have redrawn the boundaries for the State's regionalisation programme. Harry Blaney appears to have set the Government on a new course on the issue of installing mobile-phone antennae. Now Mildred Fox has indicated she is unhappy with the assurances she has received concerning the effect of such antennae on people's health.

The reality is that the Government is not concerned with what scientists and researchers say about the health hazards: it is Mildred Fox's assessment that counts.

This week's events have emphasised the reality of the numbers in the Dail. The Government, despite its apparent impregnability in the polls, is in a minority and will remain in office only so long as it keeps Independents happy.

In June 1997 the three Independent deputies received specific concessions from the Government in exchange for their support. Mr Healy-Rae was told that priority would be given to finding a replacement industry for the former Pretty Polly factory in Killarney. The Government also pledged extra resources for main and secondary roads, grant aid for small fishermen, and the upgrading of piers on the south Kerry coastline.

Ms Fox extracted pledges of a new secondary school at Kilcoole, the upgrading of the N81 road, the making up of a shortfall of £80,000 for a CATscan at Loughlinstown Hospital, a Wicklow County Council sub-office to be provided for Blessington and a new district veterinary office for Co Wicklow.

Mr Blaney also got a local promise with a commitment to spending on Donegal's roads and infrastructure. He alone got commitments on national issues. The Government assured him it would work unstintingly for an inclusive settlement in the North, and that there would be no changes to Articles 2 and 3 unless there was such a settlement. The Government was also to deal with the abortion issue, although nothing more specific was outlined.

Now Mr Tom Gildea has indicated that he will support the Government from now on. He was just in time to ensure the narrowest of Government majorities on a vote on a Fine Gael motion on mental health. He has said he has no written agreement with the Government, but he is known to favour extra spending on a pier at Killybegs and on roads in Co Donegal. It would not be surprising if action on these matters was seen in the lifetime of this Government.

The Independents meet the Government Chief Whip, Seamus Brennan, every Tuesday to discuss Dail business and other matters. It allows the Independents high-level political access each week, while allowing the Government to ensure nothing is coming up in the chamber that week that could send a vital Independent into the opposition voting lobbies. In addition, an assistant Principal Officer in the Department of the Taoiseach has been given the job of liaising with the Independent deputies.

The three who have supported the Government since its formation have a different style from Tony Gregory, the Independent who was the all-time, highest-profile supporter of a minority government. "We called what we negotiated a programme for government, the media called it a deal," he says. "I read it into the record of the Dail, it was transparent, people knew I was voting for Haughey as Taoiseach and they knew why."

The arrangements with the present Government supporting Independents appear less clear. They are seen regularly to seek clarification of various issues and to apply pressure to the Government on specific matters.

However, despite the Government's minority position, there appears to be no real threat in the near future. But despite the recent high profile of the Independents there is no indication that any of the three would consider bringing down the Government.

Harry Blaney and Jackie Healy-Rae are steeped in Fianna Fail, and the idea of voting with Fine Gael against that party must seem anathema to them. Mildred Fox's background is Fianna Fail as well. It is for precisely this reason that these three were targeted by Fianna Fail in June 1997 when that party was constructing a Dail majority to elect Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach and sustain the Fianna Fail-PD Government.

One of those not supporting the present Government and therefore not favoured by it, Tony Gregory, says the significance of the Kerrykeel mobile telephone mast incident has been exaggerated. Work to erect the mast was suspended after Mr Blaney threatened withdrawal of voting support to the Government on Budget day.

However, Mr Blaney cannot be accused of doing anything unworthy, Mr Gregory suggests. "If that mast was going up in Gay Mitchell's or Ivor Callely's or my constituency any of us would have done the same," he says. "I would have got myself arrested to draw attention to it. Blaney responded in the same way any of us would have. Faced with scenes of local people being frog-marched into local Garda stations, any public representative worth their salt would have been there like a light, Budget or no Budget."

Mr Gregory believes that, far from having disproportionate influence, the Independents have sold themselves short. "There are four Independents supporting the Government. There are four other deputies who are members of the PDs. Three of these are Ministers and the fourth [Desmond O'Malley] chairs one of the most high-profile Oireachtas committees."

Mr Gregory's conclusion is that the Independents upon whom the Government is depending should have demanded to be represented at Cabinet. "Then the decision to include Kerry in the Objective 1 region, for example, would have been part of a collective Cabinet decision and not seen as some sort of stroke.

"If Independents continue to be elected to the Dail in the same or increasing numbers, and Governments are being put together with the help of very small parties, then Independents will realise that unless you are at the Cabinet table you will be always chasing after Ministers and you will have much less effect."